Rate predictions
| Trend | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| Terrorism and sabotage |  |
-5% to +5% |
| Political violence |  |
+10% to +15% |
| Active assailant |  |
Flat to +5% |
Key takeaway
Despite prolonged periods of civil unrest and elevated levels of threat from organized domestic extremists and lone-wolf shooters, the market continues to attract new entrants.
Domestic extremism is now the greatest domestic threat…
- In a significant shift in stance from their predecessors, the new U.S. attorney general, the homeland security secretary and the FBI have warned that the greatest domestic threat now comes from “racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists.”
…yet the potential for international terrorist attacks remains.
- The recent withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan and the reestablishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has raised concerns about the potential reemergence there of a terrorist hub and launchpad for future attacks.
We are seeing a renewed focus on cyberattacks.
- In the wake of regular cyberattacks targeting high profile organizations and infrastructure assets, risk managers are renewing their focus on exposure to first-party physical damage and resulting business interruption from malicious cyber events. New products in the marketplace offer broad coverage triggers that reflect the difficulty in determining motive and/or culprit in such attacks.
- Notwithstanding these market innovations, the capacity requirements of many organizations can still only be met through the deployment of captives to access TRIA protections.
The market holds steady.
- Despite the exposures, market capacity for terrorism and political violence risks continues to expand, which helps suppress upward price pressures put forward by incumbent carriers.
