Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 Spring Update – Crisis Management

Rate predictions: Crisis management

	Trend	Range
Terrorism and sabotage		–5% to +5%
Political violence		Flat to +10%
Active assailant		–2.5% to +2.5%
Kidnap and ransom		Flat to +5%

Key takeaway

• Middle East conflict reshapes market — War coverage rates in Gulf states spiked up to 50x following Iran attacks; clients should secure coverage before renewals due to capacity constraints
• Individual threats dominate — Politically motivated violence, active assailant incidents and threats to executives are now the most frequent crisis events, expanding beyond traditional mass casualty scenarios
• Crypto-fueled kidnapping surges — Attackers increasingly exploit cryptocurrency anonymity to target executives and high-net-worth individuals, spreading beyond traditional hotspots
• U.S. market stays competitive — Despite elevated risks, terrorism/political violence capacity exceeds $2 billion with favorable pricing, though TRIA gaps leave civil unrest exposures uncovered

The first quarter of 2026 witnessed a significant shift in the global geopolitical landscape, ushering in a new era of uncertainty in the Middle East and Latin America. For organizations with foreign operations, travel exposure, and those impacted by international supply chains, a renewed focus on crisis risk management is imperative.

Terrorism and political violence

• Conflict in and around Iran has shone a spotlight on the terrorism and political violence (TPV) insurance market, which remains largely open even for risks in the Middle East. Rates for war coverage in certain gulf states increased by as much as fifty times in the days following the first attacks, and they have yet to subside as of March 2026
• Insurers are often limited by a country's aggregate exposure, and clients seeking protection against political violence losses should not wait for their next renewal cycle to request terms
• In the United States, capacity and pricing remain favorable despite elevated risk, as standalone terrorism and political violence insurance capacity has expanded beyond $2 billion. Competition has increased, and pricing has softened even as geopolitical instability and domestic extremism persist
• TRIA remains a critical but narrow backstop. There's a growing gap between so-called ‘certified’ acts of terrorism and the broader political violence, sabotage and civil unrest exposures driving losses

Active assailant and malicious attacks

• Threats to individuals are now the most frequently reported crisis incidents, driven by politically motivated violence, targeted attacks on public figures and active assailant events across North America and Europe
• Risk profiles have expanded beyond mass casualty events, with organizations increasingly exposed to lone-actor incidents, targeted shootings, intimidation and malicious threats that disrupt operations even without physical damage
• Preparedness and response costs are increasingly pivotal, with losses extending beyond property damage to include medical care, trauma response, business interruption, reputational harm and duty of care obligations

Special crime, kidnap and ransom and emergency evacuation

• High-net-worth individuals and executives remain priority targets. Kidnap and extortion risks intensified in 2025 and spread beyond traditional hotspots into regions previously considered lower risk
• Crypto-linked kidnap and extortion have emerged as a defining trend, with attackers exploiting the anonymity and irreversibility of digital assets to target executives, investors and public facing individuals through violent coercion and ransom demands
• 24/7 access to specialist response services remains vital, as rapid deployment of crisis consultants, negotiators, medical, and security experts continues to materially reduce harm and severity in kidnap, extortion and detention scenarios

Emergency evacuation and political repatriation demand increased materially, reflecting sustained geopolitical instability and reinforcing the importance of integrated crisis management programs that combine insurance, intelligence and response execution.