As interest in Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) continues to accelerate across the investment industry, the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) Association is advancing the conversation today by releasing a new report that details how investors can transition their organizations from strategic asset allocation to TPA.
Developed in collaboration with WTW’s Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI), the report is based upon new insights from leading asset owners around the world. It shares candid insights, early challenges, and the behind-the-scenes breakthroughs from investors along different stages of adopting this more integrated and agile approach in practice.
| Asset class | Quarterly return as of 9/30/25 |
|---|---|
| Equities | |
| S&P 500 | 8.1% |
| Russell 1000 | 8.0% |
| MSCI AC World ex USA | 6.9% |
| MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) | 10.6% |
| Fixed Income | |
| Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate | 2.0% |
| Real Assets / Other | |
| Gold | 17.4% |
| Crude Oil | -5.1% |
| FTSE NAREIT All REITs | 2.7% |
| HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index | 3.2% |
The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, with Q2 GDP revised up to 3.8% q/q annualized, driven by stronger services spending and business investment.
U.S. retail sales for August were stronger than expected, increasing by 0.60% month-over-month, above the consensus of 0.20%, resulting in an annual pace of 5.0%. Cooling initial and continuing jobless claims data indicated a slight improvement in the labor market. Initial claims fell to 231k, below the consensus of 240k. Continuing claims decreased to 1.92 mm, also below the consensus of 1.95 mm.
The U.S. Government entered a shutdown in October, with neither political party willing to compromise on the stopgap funding measure needed to keep federal agencies operational.
Notably, the Trump administration has discretion over which services are deemed essential vs. non-essential as part of the shutdown, but the Congressional Budget Office estimates roughly 750,000 workers could be furloughed during the shutdown.
Markets have been benign in advance of and during the early days of the shutdown. U.S. economic data has remained relatively strong, and the equity markets have continued on a positive trajectory. Interest rates similarly have been stable, contrary to what one might expect from a shutdown. However, it should be noted that 10-year has been quite volatile over the last year, as the yield curve has largely “normalized” from an inverted position to a positively sloped shape following recent Fed rate cuts and the market expectations for additional cuts.
What is the economic and market impact?
In other developments, the ADP employment report for September was very weak, with private sector job growth falling significantly short of expectations at -32,000, compared to a consensus of +50,000. This raises concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market and could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The Chicago PMI for September came in at 40.6. A PMI below 50 is consistent with contracting output. This print indicates a slowdown in manufacturing activity.
The University of Michigan’s measure of U.S. consumer confidence weakened last month to the lowest level since April. Business conditions and expectations of job openings both declined. This presents an interesting contrast to the performance of the stock market, which has been touching all-time highs.
We’re pleased to share that Nimisha Srivastava will be speaking at the ALTSSE conference on October 30, 2025. We hope you can join her for the Keynote Discussion: “Effectively Investing Through Private Markets — Diversification & Returns,” where leading alternatives investors and allocators will explore how private equity, private debt, venture capital, and more contribute to portfolio diversification and returns. Register for the event.
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