| Trend | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| General liability |  | +2% to +8% |
| Auto liability | | +10% to +20+% |
| Workers compensation |  | –5% to +2% |
| Umbrella (/excess liability) | | +8% to +15% |
| Umbrella liability | ||
|---|---|---|
| High hazard/challenged class | | +10% to +15% |
| Low hazard/moderate hazard | | +7.5% to +12.5% |
| Excess liability | ||
|---|---|---|
| High hazard/challenged class | | +7.5% to +15% |
| Low hazard/moderate hazard | | +5% to +12% |
Key takeaway
The North American casualty insurance marketplace remains highly segmented, with dynamics varying significantly based on product line, industry sector, exposure profile, loss experience, and jurisdiction. In the primary casualty space, the market continues to experience bifurcated results. Accounts with low to moderate risk and favorable loss histories are generally seeing modest single-digit rate increases across most lines—with Workers' Compensation being a notable exception, where rate reductions remain common. Conversely, higher hazard and distressed risks are facing double-digit rate increases, particularly in liability coverage. Retention evaluation and balance sheet deployment for large accounts continues in this environment as a tool for premium mitigation and optionality of supply.
In the umbrella and excess liability market, overall conditions remain challenging. While high-hazard classes have long contended with pricing and capacity constraints, even moderately rated risks are now subject to significant limit reductions, coverage restrictions, and pressures on minimum premiums. This difficult market is further exacerbated by the ongoing absence of broad tort reform and a litigation environment marked by aggressive legal tactics and an uptick in nuclear ($10+ millions) and thermo-nuclear ($100+ millions) verdicts.
Despite these headwinds, carrier surplus levels remain strong, and a favorable interest rate environment is contributing to improved financial results. According to A.M. Best, the U.S. property and casualty industry posted an underwriting profit in 2024—the first in three years. However, these gains have been partially offset by material reserve increases for liability lines from prior accident years (though Workers' Compensation reserve releases have provided some balance).
From a macroeconomic perspective, the geopolitical landscape—including the continuation of global tariffs—presents emerging challenges, particularly in the form of exposure volatility and supply chain disruption. Clients must work closely with their brokers to assess and validate ratable exposures, ensuring a clear alignment between premium levels and actual hazard risk.
Looking ahead, actuarial-driven predictive modeling and quantitative analysis will be indispensable in both risk evaluation and negotiation. Accurate loss forecasting, layer-specific loss probability assessments and structural flexibility are critical to optimizing program design. Leveraging portfolio scale, exploring captive solutions, alternative risk transfer (ART) options, and engaging with the global insurance marketplace will be key strategies for clients seeking to achieve the most favorable pricing, structure, and long-term carrier partnerships.
