| Trend | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| United States | ||
| Homes |  |
+15% to +20% |
| Home with losses | |
+50% or non-renewal |
| Cat-exposed homes | |
+50% to +100% with limitation or non-renewal |
| Cat-exposed homes with losses | |
+100% or non-renewal |
| Auto | |
+15% to +25% |
| Personal umbrella liability | |
+20% to +25% |
| Canada | ||
| Homes | |
+8% to +20% |
| Auto | |
+6% to +10% |
| Personal liability | |
+1% to +2% |
Key takeaway: We continue to predict a pervasive hard market in personal lines across all lines of business with rate increases persisting in 2024. Carriers remain focused on profitability over growth and, as such, have firmed up their underwriting appetite and risk exposure.
At the same time, as inflation has lessened, reinsurance has stabilized, giving carriers more comfort with rate already taken. As a result, some moderation is becoming apparent with lesser premium increases at renewal and lower inflation adjusted coverage requirements. CA, FL, TX, CO and NY remain problematic as carriers continue to shed unwanted risks. Yet, some carriers are now indicating the end of large book cancellations and willing to consider well-protected risks in these areas, particularly with their non-admitted products. Capacity shortage from carriers limiting growth or pulling out of states all together is still in play, but we predict that will lessen, with the exception of states like CA, NJ and others who struggle to adapt their regulatory requirements. Extreme weather, poor driving habits, increased litigation and inflated claims costs will continue to impact carriers; these factors combined with any “shock” event could reverse any moderating.
Homeowners being underinsured is still a major concern
- Carriers and clients are still struggling to match policies with actual replacement costs as labor and materials continue to increase.
- Economic inflation coupled with social inflation is still pushing loss costs.
- Pervasive labor shortages mean higher wages, which increases building costs.
- Frequent convective storms, wildfires, freezes, floods and hail country-wide are driving $1 billion+ losses, which collectively are worse than single major events like a hurricane of $10 billion+. (2023 saw the most ever of these loss events with 2024 likely to experience the same.)
- Flooding continues to be the most common type of natural disaster world-wide and the most underinsured.
The reliance on surplus lines will continue to grow as the demand for solutions in high-risk areas expands
- Reinsurance as well as alternative capital has stabilized for now, helping provide additional capacity, especially in surplus lines.
- Admitted carriers will continue to shy away from CAT-prone areas leaving many clients dependent on alternative markets through surplus lines wholesalers.
- Non-admitted carriers are still taking significant rate while eliminating coverages usually included by the admitted market.
- More standard carriers are creating non-admitted solutions to address capacity issues and coverage concerns.
Personal auto premiums are still significantly on the rise in the short term, but some moderation is possible with better results later in the year
- Personal auto results have started to improve somewhat as large rate increases and strict underwriting is helping better results. However, carriers are still not satisfied and will continue to seek significant rate until consistent results over several quarters materialize.
- Frequency and severity of auto-claims are still a problem that needs to be addressed beyond simply raising rates. Changes in driving habits through real-time monitoring of drivers is one way to address this problem by rewarding responsible, safe drivers with lower premiums.
- Elevated used car prices and extended repair times have lessened, but remain a drag on auto carriers’ ability to remain profitable in 2024.
- Large auto liability losses and outsized settlements are still a significant concern.
- Car theft crisis continues to impact Canada and U.S.
Personal umbrella liability pricing accelerates; underwriting tightens
- Carriers are concerned with outsized settlements due to social inflation.
- Carriers are also worried about excessive litigation, which drives outsized settlements.
- Automobile liability losses especially have put a strain on limits being offered and on pricing increases.
Disclaimer
Willis Towers Watson hopes you found the general information provided in this publication informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, Willis Towers Watson offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).
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