U.S. casualty: Stable capacity endures despite claims inflation

Primary liability market capacity is stable

The primary liability market, including workers compensation, general liability, and auto liability, remains stable due to manageable primary limits, risk-transfer attachment points, and ample overall capacity.

Most sectors are experiencing flat to low-single digit increases (1-3%) on workers’ compensation and general liability renewals in 2026 for profitable accounts. Auto liability remains a challenge for most markets due to social inflation, which is continuing to see high single-digit or low double-digit rate increases due to claims inflation and an overall increase in litigated claims.

General liability rates are flat to low single-digit increases

General liability rates for upstream, midstream/downstream, power/renewables, and chemical segments are expected to range from flat renewals to low single-digit increases in 2026. Capacity remains at record levels for many sectors across the natural resources industry due to London’s emergence as a real option for many companies.

Workers' compensation remains profitable

Incumbent markets are seeking low rate increases in this sector, citing medical inflation as a primary reason, but many carriers are willing to offer more competitive renewal terms when marketing. Since the sector is seeing an uptick in severity of workplace injuries, oilfield services (OFS) companies and industrial contractors are seeing larger rate increases if they have negative loss records.

Auto liability remains challenging

Despite rate increases that have averaged in the double-digits over the past 10 years, carriers are still struggling to achieve profitability in this segment due to the increase in litigated claims and associated demands.

A well-funded plaintiff’s bar continues to focus on commercial auto litigation and accident frequency continues to trend upwards for many insured in the energy industry, which does not bode well for auto liability rates in the year ahead. Jurisdictions that used to be considered neutral are now becoming plaintiff-friendly venues as well in places like the Permian Basin (and Harris County) where activity is concentrated and frequency of losses is high. Areas such as Louisiana and South Texas continue to be challenging venues.

Excess liability market

Lead umbrella and first $25 million of programs

Despite the continuation of an increase in claims inflation, capacity remains stable year-on-year as many carriers are focusing on shorter ($5 million to $10 million limits) and the London market is willing to offer quota-share options as an alternative to the U.S. marketplace.

Above $25 million

Capacity remains plentiful above $25 million, with most segments seeing a surplus of options in both the domestic and London marketplace.

While the domestic excess liability market continues to contract, specifically concerning limit amounts offered by U.S. markets, the London and Bermuda markets have slightly increased capacity and appetite, which has offset any capacity issues overall.

Upstream energy capacity remains stable

Capacity remains stable for both onshore and offshore operators in 2026. While we have seen an exit of a prominent managing general underwriter (MGU) facility domestically, the London market’s appetite has increased greatly, with a record number of carriers and syndicates willing to offer capacity to insureds in this sector. Domestic (non-MGU) capacity remains stable in 2026, with multiple options available for operators.

Midstream and downstream segments continue to face challenges

Challenges endure, due to an increase in third-party contracting claims, but capacity remains relatively stable year-on-year. The domestic lead umbrella marketplace is expected to seek high single-digit or low double-digit rate increases and capacity is challenging due to limited options, while we expect capacity above $25 million to offer flat to single-digit increases during renewals.

Trends to watch: Market concerns

• Contractor injuries
• Continued underwriting focus on fleet safety programs

Download the full article to find out which actions energy companies should take to prepare for trends in 2026.