The international liability elevator pitch: Market overview for 2026

In 2026, the international liability market can be best compared to this group of escalators travelling at varying speeds in different directions.

International liability is the group escalators travelling downwards, but at differing speeds depending on region and jurisdiction. Interestingly the only escalator in the building going upwards is U.S. casualty, where the increasing frequency and quantum of casualty awards continue to drive premium increases.

Market mechanics: From positive to neutral

Lloyd’s of London results are a strong barometer of the health of the global casualty market. Following seven unprofitable years, casualty as a class swung back into profitability in 2022 as a result of remediation work by insurers and higher rates over the past five years.

However, Lloyds Full Year Results 2025 show that the combined ratio has dipped to neutral/marginally unprofitable territory. This is partly as a result of deterioration of results for directors and officers and cyber, which are included in Lloyds’ casualty category, but also a reflection of more recent softening of the international liability market and claims in the U.S. casualty sector.

The size of the prize

The global general liability insurance market is projected to grow from $299 billion in 2026 to over $460 billion by 2034, driven by rising demand and litigation risks. This represents a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% and an increase of over 150% in eight years.

“Despite the increasing risks, casualty represents an attractive growth class for insurers looking to for future premium opportunities, and energy liability is an important element of this outlook”, Mike Newsom Davis, Global Head of Liability, Willis Natural Resources.

Good news: Healthy capacity

In the past year, we have seen a number of major insurers reducing their line sizes to limit their exposure to large single casualty claim events. This has been driven primarily by a series of large U.S. casualty claims on international programs with U.S. exposures. A recent influx of capacity from new managing general agents (MGAs) and expansion of appetite by certain Lloyd’s syndicates and companies has more that counteracted any capacity losses, resulting in greater choice and a modest increase in overall global limit.

Rating environment: From travellator to downwards escalator

Despite some underlying concerns regarding social inflation and reserving, the entry of additional capacity combined with competitive regional market conditions have acted to apply downward pressure on rates in the international market. The one exception as referenced is the U.S., where modest increases prevail.

Liability rating escalators are travelling at different speeds.

From flat travelator to gentle descent: Moving from flat rating in early 2025, the default for loss free accounts with significant limits is now a low single-digit reduction.

Picking up speed: In Latin America, greater treaty flexibility is allowing domestic markets to be more aggressive (albeit particularly in the power sector, where there is greater capacity than for energy). For energy, mid to high single-digit reductions are the default norm.

Swift descent: Australian and Canadian business are seeing high single-digit to double-digit reductions driven by local competition with similar competition on Asian business.

Fastest route down: Regional markets in the Middle East are currently the most competitive, with double-digit reductions common.

It should be emphasized, however, that the overall result will depend on location and limit purchased.

The good news is that, despite underlying market concerns regarding claims inflation and reserving, capacity and competition are acting to sustain a liability market that is beneficial to buyers and shows no sign of hardening in the immediate future.

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