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Energy Market Review 2026

What will it take to turn the soft energy insurance market?

Author

Rupert Mackenzie and
Marie Reiter
April 16, 2026

The energy insurance market remains deeply soft, with abundant capacity, intense competition and continued downward pressure on rates.

Deteriorating loss trends, whether from heavy downstream refinery losses, upstream construction tails or liability claims inflation, have not yet driven corrective hardening. Sector loss severity remains insufficient to counteract capital oversupply, leaving pricing increasingly disconnected from underlying risk.

Capacity oversupply is the central driver, pushing underwriters to protect portfolios through aggressive rating, broadening appetite and stepping into leadership positions to maintain relevance.

Energy Market Review 2026

What will it take to turn the soft energy insurance market?

Key energy regional hotspots

The energy property market has continued a buyer-friendly slide in the first quarter with double-digit rate decreases becoming the benchmark. While operational losses have occurred, ample market capacity continues to tilt the normal market balance with excess supply. Insurers’ desire to grow or maintain quota-shared placements have often come at the expense of pricing discipline.

Soft market conditions have extended into 2026, with rate reductions of 30–40% achievable on well-managed, loss-free renewals and more competitive outcomes on structured placements. New players (including MGAs and regional facilities) continue to increase the overall supply of capacity, creating favorable conditions, particularly for accounts with strong risk engineering and transparent exposure data.

Insurers are rethinking long-term portfolio strategies; however, this is not directly impacting appetite and there remains a high level of competition. European-based insurers will compete strongly on well-managed risks to maintain their participation in country. While capacity remains abundant, we do not anticipate any near-term change in these conditions.

Pricing across Middle East upstream risks is increasingly fragmented rather than uniformly soft. High-quality operating programs continue to attract strong competition and generally achieve reductions, particularly where incumbent leadership is tested. 40–45% reductions are available in more competitive tenders, but the ultimate outcome will vary.

Chinese market capacity for energy risks remains broadly stable, with approximately $400-450 million available for upstream risks and $5-6 billion for downstream risks, consistent with last year’s levels. No material loss events have been recorded in the past 12 months that would significantly influence domestic insurers’ underwriting appetite or balance sheets. Market participation among Chinese insurers remains strong, and overall pricing and capacity deployment show little deviation from prior year conditions.

The soft downstream energy market is expected to persist through at least H1 2026 in Asia. While insurers are increasingly conscious of rate adequacy, oversupply of capacity and ambitious growth targets are likely to cap any meaningful upward pricing pressure in the near term. The upstream insurance market in Asia remains decisively buyer friendly, supported by another year of benign loss experience, expanding insurer capacity and strong competition for quality risks.

Carbon capture could be a new growth lever

The dichotomy of shrinking premium pools across all energy sectors against increasingly ambitious management growth targets is pushing insurers to find new revenue sources. In an industry where few risks are truly new, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCS) presents one of the very few sources of genuinely new insurable activity. This Review explores how innovative, whole value chain insurance solutions can unlock CCUS investment and position insurers at the center of this emerging growth engine.

M&A activity could become a counterweight

Although today’s market remains well supplied, insurer consolidation is progressively centralizing capacity. This trend could curtail future availability as merged entities rationalize portfolios, tighten underwriting discipline or reallocate capital in response to rising loss trends. M&A trends are explored in ‘Stability, scale and strategic positioning: Energy sector M&A trends to watch in 2026’ as part of this Energy Market Review.

Looking ahead

As 2026 progresses, the energy insurance market remains highly favorable for buyers, but it is built on fragile foundations.

“
With a much-reduced premium pool and marginal rate adequacy on most placements, a significant capacity withdrawal, severe loss event or shift in treaty appetite could trigger a rapid turn in the cycle. Preparedness and strategic positioning will be essential as the market moves closer to an inevitable inflection point.”
Rupert MackenzieGlobal Head of Natural Resources

“With a much-reduced premium pool and marginal rate adequacy on most placements, a significant capacity withdrawal, severe loss event or shift in treaty appetite could trigger a rapid turn in the cycle. Preparedness and strategic positioning will be essential as the market moves closer to an inevitable inflection point”, Rupert Mackenzie, Global Leader, Willis Natural Resources.

Risk quality and strategic engagement matter more than ever. “High-quality engineering, clear risk data, flexible placement structures and strong broker-to-market relationships remain essential differentiators to create resilience and stability for energy companies in readiness to withstand unexpected shocks and future upturns in the market environment”, Marie Reiter, Global Head of Broking Strategy, Willis Natural Resources.

Download the full Review to find out how these trends are set to drive the 2026 energy insurance market.

Disclaimer

WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).

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Authors

Rupert Mackenzie, Head of Natural Resources

Rupert Mackenzie

Head of Natural Resources

Photo of Marie Reiter

Marie Reiter

Head of Global Broking Strategy Natural Resources

Contact

William Helander

Regional Leader, Natural Resources, North America

Industry

Energy: Oil and gas

Access the launch event recording