Fictitious and strategic cargo theft continues to evolve. What was first identified by the WTW marine risk consulting team in 2024 as an emerging risk, became a focus of our work with many clients in 2025. Based on our most recent lessons learned, we have identified eight emerging risks that shippers, logistics providers and risk managers involved with moving cargo should consider in 2026.
01
Why it matters: Strategic theft can target single high-value shipments, or a series of shipments over time. Underwriters may treat multiple shipments as one occurrence, which could result in being underinsured if limits are set too low. They could also view each individual theft as a single occurrence, resulting in multiple deductibles being applied. How your occurrence language will be interpreted is a factor in determining adequate limits of coverage. If you have high deductibles, multiple deductible situations where individual losses do not go above the deductible can result in large uninsured losses.
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Review and understand the occurrence language in your cargo policy.
02
Why it matters: Underwriters for high-risk shipments are requesting higher deductibles to encourage insureds to invest in loss-prevention. Underwriters are also requesting higher deductibles or coverage sublimits for strategic losses. Deductibles apply per occurrence, so multiple shipments considered as multiple occurrences, will likely result in multiple deductibles being applied, impacting financial exposure.
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03
Why it matters: Strategic theft often begins with digital impersonation, email compromise, or fraudulent platform activity. Most cargo policies incorporate cyber exclusions, including versions of LMA5403, which could be interpreted as limiting coverage if a theft is deemed to arise from a cyber event. This can create unexpected gaps when digital deception triggers a physical loss.
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04
Why it matters: More frequently insurers are including specific loss control measures as requirements of coverage for losses under a cargo or logistics policy. This has been happening more frequently for high-value shipments that are the target of criminal organizations utilizing strategic loss tactics. These can include:
If you experience a large strategic theft, expect underwriters to be proactive and request improved loss control measures. Once implemented, noncompliance can invalidate coverage in the event of a strategic theft.
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05
Why it matters: Criminal organizations are increasingly focusing their efforts on high-value cargo, specifically targeting sectors where the resale value is high and the product is portable and easily resold. In 2026, the primary targets for fictitious pickup, fraud and double-brokering schemes include: Electronics, servers, pharmaceuticals, foods, candy, liquor, beverages and luxury goods. These cargoes are prime targets for deceptive pickups or theft via double brokering.
Criminal organizations at the forefront of strategic theft are targeting these specific goods. Multi-shipment exposures can compound a type of accumulation risk, especially if underwriters consider them one occurrence. Underwriters are requesting specific loss control measures for high-value cargo including:
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06
Why it matters: Human error is a top enabler of fictitious theft. Red flags include last-minute carrier changes, spoofed emails and suspicious phone calls. This is an area where risk managers can add value to operational teams within their organizations by providing training.
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07
Why it matters: GPS tracking, telematics, blockchain-based BOLs, and AI-driven risk alerts help prevent theft and flag anomalies in real time. Cargo shippers and logistics providers facing potential losses related to strategic theft will need to implement technologies internally and with the help of third-party technology providers.
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08
Why it matters: Analyzing loss data, claims history, and identifying potential theft hotspot trends can improve early detection and increase chances of recovery and subrogation. Without analyzing the data, it might be impossible to identify a situation where fraudulent theft is taking place or who in the supply chain might be responsible for the loss. These types of losses can occur over months, may appear to be random individual events and can be difficult to identify.
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In 2026, strategic cargo theft is no longer just a logistics problem; it’s a multi-dimensional risk management challenge. Shippers, logistics providers and risk managers who proactively address potential strategic theft risks will be far better positioned to prevent theft, secure coverage and protect their bottom line.
Strategic cargo theft in 2026 is a sophisticated, multi-layered risk that goes beyond simple theft or hijacking. Success requires a holistic approach: understanding how policy limits and deductibles apply, complying with underwriter loss control requirements, understanding cyber exclusions, protecting high-value shipments, training staff to recognize red flags, leveraging technology and using data to anticipate emerging threats. By proactively addressing these eight strategic themes, organizations can reduce exposure, secure coverage, and strengthen claims readiness, turning a growing threat into a manageable part of enterprise risk management.
WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).
