Insurance Marketplace Realities 2023 Spring Update – Political risk

Rate predictions: Political risk

	Trend	Range
Political risk		+10 to +45% depending on country mix within portfolio

The Ukraine/Russia conflict brought political risk insurance into sharp focus, particularly its non-cancellable, multi-year terms.

• The conflict brought the non-cancellable nature of PRI into focus as the war peril under marine can be cancellable, and property policies exclude “war and hostile acts.”
• Coverage in political risk policies is non-cancellable by the carrier for the entire policy term (multi-year).
• Policy terms in political risk are multi-year, often three to five years, with some carriers offering a 20-year period.
• We encourage clients to take the longer policy periods to extend the guarantee of coverage and rate.

China capacity is in demand, but supply has narrowed considerably.

• A common theme regarding multinational companies has been: If what’s happened with Ukraine and Russia happens elsewhere (such as Asia-Pacific, which is more financially significant to us), how can we protect these scenarios with political risk insurance?
• A few carriers continue to offer limited capacity, but the supply has decreased considerably per graph.
• Remaining capacity generally excludes companies in the technology and defense sectors.
• WTW encourages the review of exposures across Asia -Pac particularly in an Asia-Pacific maritime dispute scenario which has the potential to be wide reaching.

Recent election outcomes showcase shift left

• We have witnessed a spate of left-wing election outcomes in Latin America in the last couple of years from, most recently, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Honduras, Argentina and Chile among others. Some analysts cite frustration from citizens of the governments in the wake of COVID-19, coupled with inflation pressures.
• Peru has seen unrest following the ouster of President Pedro Castillo and some local opposition to mining.
• Colombia elects its first leftist president in Gustavo Petro; Lula returns to Brazil.
• Mexico’s investment climate has garnered attention recently with the introduction of a reform bill that may affect foreign investor’s interests, particularly in the sectors of mining, energy, construction and rail, in addition to open-source news regarding a port seizure, brewery closure and cancelled airport project.
• Increasingly Latin American-headquartered companies are seeking and taking up political risk insurance.

In our recent Political Risk Index, we examine the question of whether country alliances are changing, noting that, per our matrix and methodology, of the 61 countries mostly in the developing world, half had changed alliances over the past five years.

We encourage clients with exposures abroad to proactively consider political risk-transfer options for their country(ies) of interest before it becomes front page news to guarantee non-cancellable, multi-year cover.

Disclaimer

Willis Towers Watson hopes you found the general information provided in this publication informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, Willis Towers Watson offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).

Each applicable policy of insurance must be reviewed to determine the extent, if any, of coverage for losses relating to the Ukraine crisis. Coverage may vary depending on the jurisdiction and circumstances. For global client programs it is critical to consider all local operations and how policies may or may not include coverage relating to the Ukraine crisis. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal and/or other professional advisors. Some of the information in this publication may be compiled by third-party sources we consider reliable; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such information. We assume no duty in contract, tort or otherwise in connection with this publication and expressly disclaim, to the fullest extent permitted by law, any liability in connection with this publication. Willis Towers Watson offers insurance-related services through its appropriately licensed entities in each jurisdiction in which it operates. The Ukraine crisis is a rapidly evolving situation and changes are occurring frequently. Willis Towers Watson does not undertake to update the information included herein after the date of publication. Accordingly, readers should be aware that certain content may have changed since the date of this publication. Please reach out to the author or your Willis Towers Watson contact for more information.