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The risks from disorganized climate transitions

February 7, 2022

There is not one single homogenous global climate transition – there will be many that may lag or outpace one another, leapfrog or even reverse.
Climate Risk and Resilience

Central banks and regulators have attempted to categorize the transition scenarios that can be used to test climate related risks to global and national financial system stability. The main distinction in their scenarios is between organized transitions – where a consistent, well designed transition minimizes the cost and economic inefficiency of the transition – and disorganized transitions.

Disorganized transitions should reflect the potential and likely paths that a transition could take given the uncertainties around, and responses to, politics, policy, technology, and consumer and investor behavior. These scenarios reflect, in effect, the transition path that is most likely given current conditions absent some sort of organizing force. Even though these scenarios appear more likely and more reflective of the real world, we do not yet have scenarios that adequately address the potential sources and magnitudes of risks that could affect financial systems.

With respect to scenarios of disorganized transitions we currently see at least four major issues that need to be addressed to evaluate adequately the potential for financial risk:

Transition timing
The mismatch between supply and demand
Expected risk versus extreme risk
Uneven transitions by geography or sector

See the below paper for further information on each of these issues.

Title File Type File Size
The risks from disorganised climate transitions PDF .5 MB
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