Insurance Marketplace Realities 2023 – Terrorism and political violence

Rate predictions: Terrorism and political violence

	Trend	Range
Terrorism and sabotage
Non-volatile territories		+10% to +20%
Some volatility and/or isolated events		+20% to +30%
Major volatility and/or widespread risk of major incidents		+30% to +40%
Political violence
Non-volatile territories		+20% to +30%
Some volatility and/or isolated events		+30% to +50%
Major volatility and/or widespread risk of major incidents		+50% or higher

The crisis in Ukraine has added another dynamic to a marketplace already in turmoil from the lingering effects of the pandemic and global economic instability

• Lloyd’s is bracing for losses in Ukraine, which could ultimately exceed $3 billion.
• The global interconnection of the risk environment can lead to protracted losses in multiple-asset classes worldwide.
• Facing significant losses, reinsurers are signaling significant cost increases/reduced capacity for the class at upcoming account renewals.

Increasing global political polarization continues to provoke civil unrest and possible resurgence of terrorism.

• Large-scale political shifts are fuel for social discord. Major civil disturbances have occurred in more than 25 countries in the past 36 months, causing significant physical and human loss.
• While the marketplace has remained relatively static in terms of capacity, many insurers are reducing per-risk deployed capacity, and prices are expected to increase significantly due to these events and the expected reinsurance impacts.

A new generation of crisis analytics is being deployed to paint a clearer picture of potential human and financial consequences of terrorism and political violence.

• Risk aggregation models can calculate precise aggregate accumulations and point the way to operational and structural changes to reduce vulnerabilities.
• Global risk analytics can now generate risk scoring for any point on the planet to provide a holistic view of a company’s global risk profile and provide warnings about changing risk environments.

The deployment of captive insurance vehicles continues to provide access to otherwise unavailable or uncompetitive capacity for terrorism risk.

• Recent clarifications of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program (TRIP) legislation have enabled access to physical damage coverage due to a cyber terrorism event.

In a market where premium is capacity-driven, the flexible rating mechanisms permitted within a captive structure allow exposures to be priced for risk exposure and divorced from unrelated perils — generating significant cost savings for many clients.

Disclaimer

Willis Towers Watson hopes you found the general information provided in this publication informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, Willis Towers Watson offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).

Each applicable policy of insurance must be reviewed to determine the extent, if any, of coverage for losses relating to the Ukraine crisis. Coverage may vary depending on the jurisdiction and circumstances. For global client programs it is critical to consider all local operations and how policies may or may not include coverage relating to the Ukraine crisis. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal and/or other professional advisors. Some of the information in this publication may be compiled by third-party sources we consider reliable; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such information. We assume no duty in contract, tort or otherwise in connection with this publication and expressly disclaim, to the fullest extent permitted by law, any liability in connection with this publication. Willis Towers Watson offers insurance-related services through its appropriately licensed entities in each jurisdiction in which it operates. The Ukraine crisis is a rapidly evolving situation and changes are occurring frequently. Willis Towers Watson does not undertake to update the information included herein after the date of publication. Accordingly, readers should be aware that certain content may have changed since the date of this publication. Please reach out to the author or your Willis Towers Watson contact for more information.

Contact

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Fergus Critchley

Head of Crisis Management, North America

email Email phone +1 212 915 7651

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