| Trend | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Surety |  | Flat |
| Contract Surety | | Flat |
| International Surety | | Flat |
| M&A/Private Equity Surety | | Modest increase |
Key takeaway
- Surety bond demand remains strong and resilient, driven by sustained infrastructure spending, manufacturing growth, and construction activity, despite global economic volatility and geopolitical tensions.
- Capacity in the surety market is expected to stay plentiful throughout 2026, especially for well-qualified contractors and high-quality credits. Underwriting will be more selective for larger or higher-risk projects, but healthy competition ensures broad availability for strong applicants.
- Premium rates are projected to remain largely stable and flat in 2026, supported by solid loss ratios and competitive pressures. Only modest, case-by-case adjustments are anticipated.
- The surety industry has delivered consistent profitability for over two decades, leading to favorable and flexible underwriting terms for well-capitalized contractors.
- However, several carriers face elevated risk concentrations and emerging loss trends that could trigger significantly larger claims. If material losses occur, the industry (heavily influenced by reinsurers) is expected to respond quickly and decisively.
- International surety demand continues to grow, supported by a projected USD 106 trillion [1] in global infrastructure spending by 2040. Asia is expected to account for 66% (USD 70 trillion) [2], while the Middle East benefits from major diversification projects such as Saudi Vision 2030. Near-term challenges include the impact of the Iran conflict, higher energy costs, and project delays.
- International premium rates remained flat in 2025 and are expected to stay stable over the next 12 months due to ample capacity and strong interest in cross-border surety. AI adoption is accelerating, with 92% [3] of ICISA members planning to implement it within the next year, though human underwriter involvement will remain essential in emerging markets due to limited local data.
Footnotes
Disclaimer
WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).
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