Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 Spring Update – Casualty

Rate predictions: Casualty

Coverage Type	Trend	Range
General liability		+2% to +10%
Auto liability		+8% to +20%
Workers compensation		–3% to +2%
Umbrella/Excess		+5% to +20%
Umbrella liability – High hazard/challenged class		+10% to +20%
Umbrella liability – Low hazard/moderate hazard		+8% to +15%
Excess liability – high hazard/challenged class		+15% to +20%
Excess liability – Low hazard/moderate hazard		+5% to +12%

Key takeaway

The casualty marketplace continues to face structural pressure as General Liability, Auto Liability and Umbrella/Excess remain unprofitable, driven by escalating tort costs, nuclear verdicts and expanding third-party litigation funding, now projected to reach $31 billion in funding by 2028 (despite broader P&C underwriting gains and improving combined ratios). Rate firming accelerated across 2025 into Q4, with meaningful increases in GL, Auto, Umbrella and Excess, while Workers’ Compensation remains profitable even as reserve redundancy tightens and underwriting discipline heightens. Auto liability remains severity‑driven and structurally challenged, prompting more aggressive underwriting scrutiny and greater reliance on retentions, buffer layers and structured placements that now shape attachment points across umbrella and excess towers. General Liability results continue to deteriorate amid expanding product litigation and reserve strengthening, while emerging risks, including PFAS, wildfire exposure and social media‑related claims garner more attention from insurers.

Tort reform momentum is accelerating nationally, with states introducing transparency, caps on recovery and limits on funder influence.  Some examples include Louisiana adopting modified comparative fault and stricter causation and medical billing standards and Florida’s 2023 reforms already reducing P&C costs, lowering rates, adding new carrier entrants and boosting economic activity. Despite these positive developments, insureds must closely track the evolving legal landscape.