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Survey Report

Insurance Marketplace Realities 2025 Spring Update – Middle Market

May 2, 2025

Carriers are focusing on the middle market. New entrants have gained ground, and established players are reallocating resources, adding underwriters, and broadening terms to grow.
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Rate predictions: Middle Market
  Trend Range
Favorable risks
Property
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) Flat to +8%
General liability
Neutral increase (purple line, purple arrows pointing up) Flat to +5%
Automobile
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +10% to +15%
Workers’ compensation
Neutral decrease (purple line, purple arrows pointing down) -5% to flat
Umbrella and excess liability
Neutral increase (purple line, purple arrows pointing up) +5% to +15%
Challenging risks
Property
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +10% to +20%
General liability
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +10% to +20%
Automobile
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +20% to +30%
Workers’ compensation
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +5% to +10%
Umbrella and excess liability
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +15% to +30%

Key takeaway

The property and casualty insurance market continues to shift, with property rates continuing to stabilize and casualty lines facing mounting pressures. Despite property stabilization, carriers remain firm on rate increases for high-hazard clients and are carefully managing capacity and closely monitoring climate-related losses. As the property market becomes more manageable, the casualty market is encountering expected rate increases, re-underwriting and capacity reductions, particularly in excess liability, as legal system abuse and nuclear verdicts drive claims costs. Auto-liability rates continue to climb due to rising claims expenses and continued concerns with distracted driving, while workers’ compensation remains a strong performer, offering a competitive landscape. A bifurcated market is expected to persist, with favorable business classes benefiting from increased competition and new market entrants, while high-risk accounts must differentiate themselves to mitigate premium costs. As market dynamics evolve, multi-line solutions remain a valuable strategy for middle-market clients, helping to leverage coverage and offset premiums. However, businesses must navigate new exclusions, shifting attachment points and capacity constraints, making strategic risk management and proactive renewal planning more critical than ever.

Despite 2024 marking the fifth consecutive year of catastrophic losses exceeding $100 billion, reinsurance trends eased at the start of 2025, bringing increased capacity and competition to the property market. However, insurers continue to prioritize rate adequacy and underwriting discipline, maintaining strict risk selection and adherence to underwriting guidelines.

Legal system abuse and litigation funding continue to put pressure on the liability market, with litigation frequency and verdict sizes surging. While nuclear verdicts predominantly affect large corporations, middle-market businesses are not immune, as these trends contribute to higher casualty rates throughout the industry.

Despite continued efforts by insurers to raise rates, increase deductibles and implement risk control initiatives, insurers have struggled to keep pace with rising claim's costs and a high level of claims activity.

Workers' compensation remains a highly profitable line for insurers, with several markets requiring this line in order consider additional lines of coverage. According to the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), 2023 marked the tenth consecutive year of profitability and the seventh straight year with a combined ratio below 90%[1].

As anticipated, loss development and reserve increases due to legal system abuse and litigation funding are now impacting umbrella and excess liability lines. New exclusions, shifting attachment points and reduced capacity are prompting the restructuring of excess towers, often requiring quota-share layers and multicarrier placements.

Recent outcomes of high-profile nuclear verdict cases

Recent outcomes cases
State Verdict Details Amount Additional Information
Pennsylvania[2] Former Roundup user won case $250 million $2 billion in punitive damages ordered
Texas[3] Wrongful death case $100 million Ongoing appeals for over a decade
Missouri (St. Louis)[4] Fatal crash involving Wabash National $462 million Case from a May 2019 crash
California[5] Man burned by Starbucks Tea $50 million Award expected to exceed $60 million, including interest, fees and costs

Footnotes

  1. NCCI Metrics Show Strength of Workers Comp System at AIS 2024 Return to article
  2. Insurance Journal, "2024 Commercial Lines Rate Trends," Insurance Journal, January 29, 2024 Return to article
  3. Trucking Times, "Texas Supreme Court Rules on Werner Case," Trucking Times Return to article
  4. Commercial Carrier Journal,  "Wabash Hit with Nuclear Verdict in 2019 Underride Deaths," Commercial Carrier Journal Return to article
  5. Emily Flitter, "Starbucks Faces $50 Million Verdict in Driver Burn Case," The New York Times, March 17, 2025 Return to article

To read more, download the full report below.

Download

Title File Type File Size
Insurance Marketplace Realities 2025 Spring Update PDF 12.7 MB

Disclaimer

WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).

Contacts


Krista Cinotti
Head of Middle Market and Select, North America

Beth Cohon
Head of Middle Market Industry and Placement Strategy

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