| Trend | Range | |
|---|---|---|
| General liability |  |
+2% to +8% |
| Auto liability | |
+10% to +20+% |
| Workers compensation |  |
–5% to +2% |
| Umbrella (/excess liability) | |
+8% to +15% |
The North American casualty insurance marketplace remains highly segmented, with dynamics varying significantly based on product line, industry sector, exposure profile, loss experience, and jurisdiction. In the primary casualty space, the market continues to experience bifurcated results. Accounts with low to moderate risk and favorable loss histories are generally seeing modest single-digit rate increases across most lines—with Workers' Compensation being a notable exception, where rate reductions remain common. Conversely, higher hazard and distressed risks are facing double-digit rate increases, particularly in liability coverage. Retention evaluation and balance sheet deployment for large accounts continues in this environment as a tool for premium mitigation and optionality of supply.
In the umbrella and excess liability market, overall conditions remain challenging. While high-hazard classes have long contended with pricing and capacity constraints, even moderately rated risks are now subject to significant limit reductions, coverage restrictions, and pressures on minimum premiums. This difficult market is further exacerbated by the ongoing absence of broad tort reform and a litigation environment marked by aggressive legal tactics and an uptick in nuclear ($10+ millions) and thermo-nuclear ($100+ millions) verdicts.
Despite these headwinds, carrier surplus levels remain strong, and a favorable interest rate environment is contributing to improved financial results. According to A.M. Best, the U.S. property and casualty industry posted an underwriting profit in 2024—the first in three years. However, these gains have been partially offset by material reserve increases for liability lines from prior accident years (though Workers' Compensation reserve releases have provided some balance).
From a macroeconomic perspective, the geopolitical landscape—including the continuation of global tariffs—presents emerging challenges, particularly in the form of exposure volatility and supply chain disruption. Clients must work closely with their brokers to assess and validate ratable exposures, ensuring a clear alignment between premium levels and actual hazard risk.
Looking ahead, actuarial-driven predictive modeling and quantitative analysis will be indispensable in both risk evaluation and negotiation. Accurate loss forecasting, layer-specific loss probability assessments and structural flexibility are critical to optimizing program design. Leveraging portfolio scale, exploring captive solutions, alternative risk transfer (ART) options, and engaging with the global insurance marketplace will be key strategies for clients seeking to achieve the most favorable pricing, structure, and long-term carrier partnerships.
Workers’ compensation continues to stand out in the casualty insurance landscape, with WTW’s loss-sensitive clients experiencing 15 consecutive quarters of rate decreases, averaging –4.91% in 2024. NCCI forecasts 2024 CY Combined Ratios between 83% to 90%, indicating continued profitability for carriers and soft market conditions. This prolonged favorable period raises questions about when the market might turn, with medical inflation and slowing interest rates as potential drivers, though the ultimate catalyst may not be line-specific.
Auto liability continues to be a challenging segment within the casualty insurance market. The market has experienced 34 consecutive quarters of rate increases, with Q4 2024 seeing an average rate lift of +11.68%. This trend is driven by several factors, including nuclear verdicts, litigation trends and higher reinsurance costs. Additionally, we are operating in a two-tier market, where rates and conditions differ significantly between high-hazard and low-hazard risks. The market dynamics are further complicated by the need for higher retentions and attachment points, the adoption of new technologies and evolving legal and regulatory landscapes.
The insurance industry has continued to signal the likelihood of general liability (GL) rate increases, largely driven by the rise in nuclear verdicts across premises liability, products liability and other tort exposures. Recent data indicates that over 50% of new GL claimants are now represented by legal counsel, with more than two-thirds obtaining representation within two weeks of the incident. Despite these concerning trends, GL rate increases have remained relatively moderate — ranging from 0% to +8% over the past twelve quarters, and more recently, staying within 0% to +5% over the last five quarters.
To read more, download the full report below.
| Title | File Type | File Size |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance Marketplace Realities 2025 Spring Update | 12.7 MB |
WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).
