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What is a ‘split’ insurance market and how can you find value in it?

Author

Ben Fidlow, FCAS, MAAA and
Andy Smyth
July 14, 2026

Today’s split market means insurance conditions are moving in different directions at the same time. You might see improving terms and more capacity in parts of your program while other lines stay expensive, restricted or volatile.

That uneven picture makes real value harder to spot. Lower premiums in one area won’t necessarily improve your overall position if coverage gaps, retention levels or loss volatility are rising elsewhere.

Geopolitical volatility and supply chain issues, rising catastrophe losses and structural shifts in liability risk are all affecting pricing, capacity and coverage. That means your risk and insurance leaders need a clearer view of what to keep, what to transfer and where better terms actually support your broader strategy.

We’re seeing organizations that invest in better insight, stronger modeling and connected analytics making better, more confident decisions when markets are harder to read. That’s because decision-makers have the evidence they need to find value where it exists and avoid false savings where it doesn’t, shaping a proactive strategy instead of simply reacting to markets.

This insight takes a closer look at why and how you can use analytics to make the most of split conditions.

Why do split market conditions matter to the efficiency of your risk and insurance program?

Today’s split market is creating uneven conditions across insurance lines. You may see improved terms in some lines such as property and other specialty areas while, for example, casualty remains under sustained pressure. This pressure is being driven by changing litigation trends and increasing claims severity, higher frequency and impact of motor losses, especially in commercial fleets, larger and more volatile settlements.

Those differences demand more intentional decisions about how you optimize your risk profile and where to retain risk and/or transfer it. Finding value means getting a clear view of the trade-offs across your whole program.

How can you reduce risk spend while protecting resilience in split insurance markets?

Now is the time to treat cost reduction as a byproduct of disciplined decision-making, not the goal on its own to get better outcomes. You can also improve results by prioritizing precision over simple cost savings.

To deliver on this, you’ll need analytical insight on where you can:

  • Allocate budget where it reduces volatility and supports financial resilience
  • Structure your program to reflect actual loss potential
  • Monitor exposure changes that may lead to underinsurance
  • Use favourable conditions selectively to strengthen protection.

What analytical insight do you need to make the most from split market conditions?

Scenario modeling

While historical loss data won’t tell you how today’s extreme events could affect your business, forward-looking scenario modeling can help your leaders move from assumptions to quantified decisions.

Test events such as major catastrophes, liability shocks or supply chain disruption. These scenarios help you answer questions around what’s the potential balance sheet impact, how you should split risk between retention, transfer and capital and what level of loss can you absorb.

Reviewing exposures and limits

Because exposure values and loss drivers change throughout the year, you’ll need up-to-date inputs to maintain the efficiency of your program, particularly in harder-to-read split market conditions. In practice, this means, refreshing asset valuations regularly, reassessing business interruption assumptions and dependencies and testing casualty limits against litigation-driven severity.

Mid-cycle analytical reviews

You’ll usually get better outcomes when you use analytics to review and adjust retentions and structures as conditions shift throughout the year, not just at renewal. This kind of analysis is also more likely to help you align risk financing decisions with finance, treasury and strategic aims.

Risk portfolio analytics

You can get into a stronger position by connecting data across exposures, programs and financial outcomes. Getting a portfolio view of risks using analytics helps you:

  • Understand trade-offs across your full risk portfolio
  • Compare decisions against peers and market conditions
  • Reallocate risk spend where it delivers the greatest impact
  • Align risk financing with broader business priorities.

When you bring together scenario modeling, peer benchmarks, accurate valuations and alternative risk strategies, you can create a single framework for decision-making. That can get your business much closer to the right balance of cost, risk and resilience in split market conditions and any other.

Want to find better value in harder-to-read insurance conditions? Speak with your risk financing or risk analytics specialist to identify where you can improve performance and decision clarity.

Authors

Ben Fidlow, FCAS, MAAA, Global Head of Core Analytics

Ben Fidlow, FCAS, MAAA

Global Head of Core Analytics

Andy Smyth, Head of Strategic Risk Consulting

Andy Smyth

Head of Strategic Risk Consulting

Contacts

Kevin Little, Director, Strategic Risk Consulting, Risk and Analytics

Kevin Little

Director, Strategic Risk Consulting, Risk and Analytics

David Stebbing, Senior Director, Strategic Risk Consulting

David Stebbing

Senior Director, Strategic Risk Consulting

CAMPAIGN

Risk and Insurance Optimization