Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 – Property

Rate predictions: Property

Coverage Type	Trend	Range
Nonchallenged occupancies / NonCAT		-10% to -5%
Challenged occupancies / CAT exposed		-20% to flat
Single carrier programs		-5% to flat
Shared and layered programs		-20% to flat

Key takeaways

• Softening market: Rates continue to trend downward, with average Q2 2025 renewal rates declining by 8% compared to a 5.5% decrease in Q1. This accelerating trend is most pronounced for multi-carrier, shared and layered placements
• Risk appetite: Insurers can be leveraged to expand capacity, lower deductibles, increase critical CAT limits and broaden coverage through customized manuscript policy language for attractive, broadly marketed and oversubscribed risks and programs
• CAT event impact: The Q3 & Q4 2025 outlook, as well as projections into 2026, remain heavily contingent on the Atlantic hurricane season or other large, unforeseen CAT events. Significant events could quickly reverse the current softening trend
• Treaty reinsurance: The treaty reinsurance market remains pivotal. Despite major 2024 catastrophe losses, risk-adjusted rates in 2025 softened further, prompting primary insurers to expand coverage
• Valuation discipline: Replacement cost inflation has eased significantly from COVID-pandemic highs, with year-over-year increases now in the low single digits or even showing outright deflation, according to key indices referenced in the chart below. Accurate replacement cost valuations, through recent appraisal or valuation studies, remain the optimal tool for determining replacement cost
• Risk management: Accurate location data, BI worksheets, business continuity planning, and robust CAT modeling and engineering data remain critical to securing optimal capacity and pricing outcomes