Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 – Crisis Management

Rate predictions: Crisis management

	Trend	Range
Terrorism and sabotage		–10% to 0%
Political violence		Flat to +5%
Active assailant (or “active shooter”)		+2.5% to +10%
Kidnap and ransom		Flat to +5%

Key takeaway

The security landscape continues to adapt in the face of global geopolitical developments creating uncertainty and concern regarding the threat of political violence, kidnap, malicious attacks and other acts of violence. However, market capacity and rates remain steady, with insurers applying responsive coverage language to address evolving perils.

New capacity for terrorism and political violence perils, even in active war zones, is growing despite heightened geopolitical tensions

• Government-supported insurance schemes remain essential in ensuring the sustainability of private risk transfer solutions, yet with the U.S. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act’s potential expiration in December 2027, the specialty market continues to offer comprehensive protection independent of government certification.
• Additionally, political violence analytics have continued to advance this year, enhancing the ability to predict and quantify social unrest and terrorism to ensure accurate risk management and assessment.
• Willis', a WTW business, crisis management placed the first annual and non-cancellable Ukrainian political violence (including war) policy in the London market since the start of the conflict with Russia in February 2022.

Active assailant incidents gain global attention, expanding interest for coverage that has historically been confined to North America

• Though the U.S. is often seen as the hotspot for active assailant incidents, the recent school shooting in Austria and car ramming incidents in Germany and Canada have showcased that no region is immune to this risk.
• Almost all insurers now define “active assailant” events as violent attacks featuring a broad range of weapons (not just firearms), including knives, vehicles, drones and more.
• Appetite to cover this peril remains steady in the U.S. and it continues to grow in the global marketplace as the threat evolves and the demand for active assailant grows across different industry sectors.
• The kidnapping of crypto executives has heightened awareness across all industries about their executive protection measures and security gaps
• Multiple kidnapping incidents in the U.S. and Europe have increased awareness of this threat, with a growing sense of concern among participants in this sector.
• Due to the rise in events, organizations are taking additional steps to protect themselves, including hiring security services for executives, their families and their assets: the special crime/K&R policy remaining a crucial part of this strategy.
• Threats continue to occur more frequently than claims in this line of insurance, and clients must evaluate the breadth of the coverage they have in place to ensure it responds adequately.

Contacts

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Peter Bransden

Head of Crisis Management, North America

email Email phone +1 305 240 1024

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Philipp Seel

Head of Special Risks, North America

email Email phone +1 646 220 4807

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