Skip to main content
What can we help you find?
main content, press tab to continue
Survey Report

Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 – Middle Market

October 2, 2025

Q3 2025 commercial insurance shows softening in property lines, pressure in casualty, and strategic multi-line solutions for middle-market clients.
N/A
insurance-market-updates
Rate predictions: Middle Market
  Trend Range
Favorable risks
Property
 Neutral decrease increase –2.5% to +5%
General liability
 Increase +2 to +8%
Automobile
 Increase +10% to +15%
Workers compensation
 Neutral decrease (purple line, purple arrows pointing down) –5% to Flat
Umbrella & Excess liability
 Increase +8 to +15%
Challenging risks
Property
 Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +10% to +20%
General liability
 Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +10% to +20%
Automobile
 Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +20% to +30%
Workers’ compensation
Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +5% to +10%
Umbrella & Excess liability
 Increase (Purple arrow pointing top right) +15% to +30%

Key takeaway

The commercial insurance market in Q3 2025 is marked by a dynamic blend of stabilization and selective firming across lines. Property insurance continues to soften, driven by favorable reinsurance renewals, increased capacity and aggressive carrier growth targets — particularly for non-CAT and well-managed risks. However, CAT-exposed and distressed occupancies still face underwriting scrutiny, elevated deductibles and selective capacity deployment. In contrast, casualty lines remain under pressure, with General liability and Auto liability impacted by social inflation, litigation funding and nuclear verdicts. The excess and umbrella liability markets are changing attachment points and reducing lead limits. Workers’ compensation is still performing well, offering strategic advantages in multi-line placements. A bifurcated marketplace persists, with favorable industries benefiting from rate relief and expanded terms, while high-risk sectors face constrained capacity and rising premiums. For middle-market clients, multi-line solutions, alternative program structures and proactive renewal strategies are increasingly critical to navigating evolving underwriting dynamics and emerging risks.

  • Despite 2024 marking the fifth consecutive year of global catastrophe (CAT) losses exceeding $100 billion, favorable reinsurance treaty renewals in early 2025 have led to increased capacity and heightened competition. Carriers remain focused on portfolio optimization and rate adequacy, but underwriting discipline is softening for non-CAT and well-managed risks. [1]
  • Valuation scrutiny has eased slightly, as most insureds have addressed prior underinsurance concerns. The focus has shifted toward ongoing property maintenance and risk quality, with underwriters prioritizing roof age, building upgrades and equipment upkeep.
  • Capacity constraints persist for CAT-exposed and distressed occupancies, particularly in wildfire zones, Tier 1 wind regions and undervalued schedules. These accounts are seeing higher deductibles, reduced limits and increased reliance on shared/layered programs.
  • Non-CAT and non-challenged risks are benefiting from rate reductions and expanded capacity, creating opportunities for previously underinsured clients to secure broader coverage, increase limits and negotiate more favorable terms.
  • The property reinsurance market remained stable and well-capitalized, with ample capacity and diversified capital sources supporting flat-to-lower pricing during the January and April 2025 renewals. Despite significant losses from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, reinsurers maintained discipline, while primary markets benefited from prior rate increases and improved underwriting, especially in non-loss-impacted regions.

  • Legal system abuse and third-party litigation funding continue to drive volatility in the liability market, with rising litigation frequency and escalating verdict sizes. While nuclear verdicts disproportionately affect large corporations, middle-market clients are increasingly exposed to elevated defense costs and settlement values.
  • In a shifting legislative and judicial landscape, carriers are struggling to forecast long-tail liability exposures. This has led to re-underwriting of program structures, reduced capacity for high-hazard industries and a growing emphasis on claims management and risk differentiation.
  • States are increasingly targeting third-party litigation funding (TPLF) through tort reform, with Georgia’s Senate Bill 69 requiring funder registration, disclosure of funding agreements, and prohibiting funders from directing lawsuit strategies. These measures aim to curb lawsuit abuse, improve transparency and reduce the influence of outside capital on litigation outcomes. [2]
  • Real estate clients, particularly those with habitational exposure, are encountering tighter underwriting standards. While commercial real estate remains favorable, carriers are reducing capacity or introducing exclusions for accounts with vacancies, warehouses, or multifamily risks. Habitational risks with adverse loss histories are increasingly reliant on the excess and surplus lines market.
  • Sexual abuse and molestation (SAM) coverage is increasingly difficult to place, especially for custodial risks. Carriers that previously offered silent coverage are now implementing absolute exclusions, shifting from occurrence-based to claims-made triggers and requiring coinsurance or higher retentions. This shift to claims-made coverage must be navigated carefully in a challenged excess liability market.

  • Despite continued efforts to raise rates, increase deductibles and implement risk control measures, insurers remain challenged by rising claim severity and adverse loss development. Carriers continue to post underwriting losses, with Auto Liability experiencing its 36th consecutive quarter of rate increases.
  • The legislative environment and nuclear verdicts remain the primary headwinds. Aggressive plaintiff tactics, increased attorney involvement and third-party litigation funding are inflating claim costs and complicating reserve adequacy.
  • Loss drivers are multifaceted: distracted driving persists, while the trucking industry’s driver shortage has led to relaxed hiring standards, contributing to a deteriorating loss experience. Additionally, larger and more powerful vehicles, combined with advanced technology, are increasing both the frequency and cost of physical damage and bodily injury claims.
  • The rising cost of physical damage claims is reshaping auto-liability economics, as advanced vehicle technologies and supply chain delays drive up repair costs and downtime. Vehicles equipped with driver assistance systems often cost twice as much to repair, and commercial fleets are increasingly reaching total loss thresholds due to repair expenses exceeding actual cash value — leading to higher premiums and greater challenges for insurers.

  • Workers’ compensation remains one of the most profitable lines of business, with 2024 marking the 11th consecutive year of underwriting gains and the eighth straight year with a combined ratio below 90%. Many carriers continue to require Workers’ Compensation participation to consider additional lines, especially in multi-line placements. [3]
  • Middle-market carriers are refining program structures and enhancing service platforms to differentiate themselves in a competitive landscape. Dividend offerings, loss-sensitive plans and multi-line bundling strategies are being used to attract and retain clients. Insureds are leveraging Workers’ Compensation to negotiate better terms across their broader casualty programs.
  • Workforce demographic shifts are introducing new challenges, including an aging workforce, increased employee concentration and the rise of remote and gig work. These trends are contributing to longer recovery times and more complex claims, prompting carriers to reassess underwriting assumptions and exposure models.

  • Loss development and reserve increases driven by legal system abuse and litigation funding are now materially impacting umbrella and excess liability lines. Carriers are responding with new exclusions, shifting attachment points and reduced capacity, prompting widespread restructuring of excess towers — often requiring quota-share layers, multicarrier placements and buffer solutions.
  • Insurers with both supported and unsupported lead capabilities are scaling back limits, particularly on difficult risks such as manufacturing, retail and real estate. Supported leads remain more competitive, as carriers can manage claims handling across both primary and umbrella layers.
  • Supported lead umbrellas are more favorable for desirable classes like financial institutions, professional services and technology. These accounts may still access up to $25 million in lead capacity, with carriers leveraging supported structures to gain a competitive edge amid broader capacity constraints. 
  • Unsupported lead umbrellas are facing increased scrutiny, with carriers reducing capacity, raising minimum premiums and applying stricter underwriting standards.

Footnotes

  1. 2024: Active Year for U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Climate.gov. Return to article
  2. Georgia governor signs laws on litigation funding, premises liability. Return to article
  3. NCCI Metrics Show Strength of Workers Comp System at AIS 2024. Return to article

Disclaimer

WTW hopes you found the general information provided here informative and helpful. The information contained herein is not intended to constitute legal or other professional advice and should not be relied upon in lieu of consultation with your own legal advisors. In the event you would like more information regarding your insurance coverage, please do not hesitate to reach out to us. In North America, WTW offers insurance products through licensed entities, including Willis Towers Watson Northeast, Inc. (in the United States) and Willis Canada Inc. (in Canada).

Contacts

Krista Cinotti
Head of Middle Market and Select, North America
email Email phone +1 212 915 7783
Beth Cohon
Head of Middle Market Industry & Broking Strategy, North America
email Email phone + 1 212 915 7898
Related content tags, list of links Survey Report Insurance Insurance Market Updates

Related capabilities

Risk
Insurance
Contact us