15 years of Science for Resilience

The Willis Research Network (WRN) was created in 2006 and celebrates its 15-year anniversary this year. Our 2021 WRN conference (18-20th May) looked back at 15 years of partnership with public science, and achievements along the way to develop practical, applied research that delivers innovative insights on risk and resilience. It also looked ahead at the challenges we still face. This page collates the conference plenary sessions, designed for a broad, not-necessarily technical audience, yet interested in how science is helping risk and resilience decision-making.

This page also provides a wide selection of further material: interviews, blogs, “tech-talks” and seminars on demand, for further insights into research projects.

Day 1: Weather, Climate and Flooding

Weather and flood related risks drive significant economic and insured natural catastrophe losses, posing considerable challenges across global insurance portfolios and large complex organisations, especially in the context of a changing climate. Since 2006, WRN partners have advanced understanding of these challenges and supported the development of practical solutions.

• Session 1
• Session 2
• Session 3

Session 1: The impact of Willis Research Network

• Welcome and keynote address – reflecting on the impact of WRN on the industry
  This video focuses on the introduction to the conference and it is followed by James Vickers reflecting on the impact of WRN on the industry. Professor Dame Julia Slingo and Dr. Greg Holland also elaborate on climate change and the challenges ahead and the session is finished following a panel session moderated by Rowan Douglas.

• WRN and Willis Re: 15 years of research for the (re)insurance industry
  Ying Chuang, Deputy Head of Catastrophe Analytics for Willis Re International, and Tim Fewtrell, Head of Catastrophe Analytics EMEA North and East, Willis Re and former Willis Research Network fellow at the University of Bristol revisit some of the success of the WRN over the last 15 years.
• Consorcio de Compensacion de Seguros
  Francisco Espejo, Deputy-Director for Studies and International Relations, Consorcio de Compensacion de Seguros (CCS)

Session 2: Flood risks under the spotlight

• Held Accountable – Regulatory push and scientific insights on flood risk change
  Chris Kilsby, Professor of Hydrology and Climate Change, Newcastle University
• Downpours vs Droughts – Climate projections on extremes
  Shie-Yui Liong, Consultant to Tropical Marine Science Institute of National University of Singapore

In 2019, the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority challenged the insurance industry to stress test their portfolios for the impact of climate change. This regulatory push has been reinforced by investor pressures and a societal push within the market and put the flood risk in particular under the spotlight where academic insights provided the competitive edge. In 2021, the quest is still on, and the industry is leaning increasingly on academia for credible answers.

• WRN Spotlight: Bessie Schwarz
  Bessie Schwarz is the CEO and Co-founder of Cloud to Street.
• WRN Spotlight: Gabriele Villarini
  Gabriele Villarini reflects back on his time as a WRN Fellow at Princeton University and his interactions across the network providing an interdisciplinary approach to understanding risk.
• WRN Spotlight: Paul Bates
  Professor Paul Bates, Professor of Hydrology at the University of Bristol and founder of Fathom discusses his position as a founding member of the Willis Research Network looking at applied flood research for the insurance industry.
• WRN Spotlight: Chris Kilsby
  Professor Chris Kilsby from Newcastle University provides his views on the decade of work completed with the Willis Research Network looking at flood analysis and modelling.
• WRN Spotlight: Yui Liong
  Shie-Yui Liong looks back on his time at WRN Partners the Tropical Marine Institute at the National University of Singapore.
• WRN Spotlight: Tim Fewtrell
  Tim Fewtrell provides his thoughts on the evolution of the Willis Research Network.

Session 3: Weather and climate risk research: From  insight to impact

• Developing a view of hail hazard
  Prof. Dr. Michael Kunz, Coordinator of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology, Karslruher Institute of Technology
  Alex Saunders, Willis Re, Willis Towers Watson
• Tropical cyclone risk in current and future climates
  Dr. James Done, National Center for Atmospheric Research
  Dr. Sam Phibbs, Willis Re, Willis Towers Watson

An overview of WRN's weather and climate research over the last 15 years, with a panel discussion including the academic speakers and representatives from Willis Towers Watson, who answered questions from the audience relating to research and current business applications.

Panellists

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Dr. James Done

National Center for Atmospheric Research

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Prof. Dr Michael Kunz

Karslruhe Institute of Technology

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Weather and climate risk research: From  insight to impact

Watch more

• Willis Research Network Spotlights with James Done
  This video focuses on understanding high impact weather and the physical processes behind catastrophic weather events.
• WRN Spotlight: Understanding weather events and climates by analyzing the extent, severity and origins of hailstorms and thunderstorms
  Dr. Heinz Jürgen Punge talks weather events and climates, focusing on thunderstorms and hail research. This is done by looking at satellite data and radar data to analyse the extent, the severity and the origins of hailstorm.
• Willis Re EMEA Hail models - use cases and additional offering for our clients
  Willis Re discuss hail model developments across the EMEA region, and their application to business needs.
• WRN Spotlight: Jeff Czajkowski
  An interview with former WRN fellow Jeff Czajkowski from his time working with the Willis Research Network.
• WRN Spotlight: Chiara Lepore
  Chiara Lepore discusses her work at Columbia University which focusses on severe weather modelling across North America.
• WRN Spotlight: Ben Youngman
  Dr. Ben Youngman talks about his research with the WRN and how it can be applied to industry needs.

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Day 2: Earth and Secondary Perils

The 10-year anniversary of Tohoku reminds us that earthquakes have unpredictable and devastating consequences and require in depth understanding of the science and physics behind them. It was also a reminder that so-called secondary perils need more focus alongside traditional risks.

• Session 1
• Session 2
• Session 3

Session 1: Less modelled perils: Future directions

• Tsunami hazard modelling. Progress to date and future directions
  Prof. Imamura, IRIDeS, Tohoku University, Japan
• WRN research on natural hazard effects on buildings and infrastructure
  Prof. Tiziana Rossetto, EPICentre, University College London, UK
• Volcanic hazard and risk. Progress to date and future directions
  Dr. Alejandro Martí, CEO Mitiga Solutions, Barcelona, Spain

Our panel session on Day 2 focused on volcanic, tsunami, and other secondary peril research and why they are lagging behind more established hazard modelling and what we need to do in order to improve our understanding of such risks.

Panellists

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Prof. Imamura

IRIDeS
Tohoku University, Japan

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Prof. Anawat Suppasri

IRIDeS
Tohoku University, Japan

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Dr. Alejandro Martí

CEO Mitiga Solutions
Barcelona, Spain

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Prof. Tiziana Rossetto

EPICentre
University College London

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Less modelled perils: Future directions

Watch more

• Bridging the gap between Science and Academia
  Max Arizzi discusses strategic considerations on motivations of working with academia for developing a stronger view of risk.
• The Portuguese risk landscape
  The Association of Portuguese Insurers (APS) provide their views on the current risk landscape and challenges of catastrophe risk to the Portuguese Re/insurance market.

Session 2: Standard for global modelling with local impact

• Global Earthquake Model: lessons learnt on harnessing global and local research communities to create fit for purpose global risk models
  John Schneider, Global Earthquake Model Foundation

For the second panel session of the day we outlined the global public-private modelling initiatives and their application across different stakeholder communities, their benefits, and the requirements for developing, curating and sustaining global systems and tools, and in particular how these can be applied to support global, regional, and local risk assessment and risk reduction strategies.

Panellists

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John Schneider

Global Earthquake Model Foundation

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Prof. Paul Bates

Cabot Institute for the Environment
University of Bristol

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Dr. Emma Raven

Principal Analyst
JBA Risk Management

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Standard for global modelling with local impact

• Willis Research Network Spotlight series: Dr. Marco Pagani
  Marco Pagani, Hazard Coordinator for the Global Earthquake Model, speaks about the collaboration between Willis Towers Watson and GEM, and cutting-edge research he envisages in the next 5-10 years.
• GEM exposure, vulnerability and risk updates
  Vitor Silva, risk coordinator at the Global Earthquake Model Corporation provides an overview of resources produced by GEM to enhance understanding of earthquake risk.
• GEM Global Earthquake Model – 2020 updates and beyond
  Updates from Marco Pagani on the latest advances in hazard modelling from GEM worldwide.
• Designing a sovereign parametric earthquake protection scheme
  Alex Saunders and Nicolas Moinier build on conversations around risk and resilience with focus on protection schemes developed in Morocco.

Session 3: Seismic Risk: Aftershocks and Megashocks

• How Do Earthquakes Converse?
  Dr. Ross Stein, CEO, Temblor
• The importance of quantifying ground shaking for PML estimation
  Prof. Kim Olsen, Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University

Listen to an in-depth discussion on the role research can play in helping understand Seismic risk, including case study examples of applied work and the potential impacts to significantly improve the accuracy and range of projected losses for future large earthquake events.

Panellists

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Dr. Ross Stein

CEO, Temblor

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Prof. Kim Olsen

Department of Geological Sciences
San Diego State University

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Seismic Risk: Aftershocks and Megashocks

• Earthquake science for (re)insurance decision-makers
  Crescenzo Petrone discusses how to enhance earthquake loss assessment and how to develop alternative views of risk to vendor models leveraging the global earthquake model.
• Realtime Risk and globally consistent seismic risk modeling of Japan
  Led by Ross Stein, Temblor CEO, this talk discusses seismic risk in the Japan region.
• Time-dependency in loss estimation
  Salvator Iacoletti from UCL discusses his work on Time-dependent earthquake risk modelling.
• Using earthquake science to inform business decisions
  The odd couple – aftershocks and clustering. How can we adjust or build models to account for these coupled events?
• Dynamic and globally consistent seismic risk modeling in Japan
  Dr. Ross Stein, CEO, Temblor, and Shinji Toda, Professor, Tohoku University
• Time dependent earthquake risk modelling
  Salvatore Iacoletti, Engineer and Developer, PhD Candidate, UCL, London

Day 3: Emerging Risks, Future of Technology and Societal Resilience

The past year has shown the nature of risk is changing dramatically. New insights are needed as risk is recognised as increasingly interconnected and people and technology-driven, with discussions around “digital-first” and societal resilience taking centre stage.

• Session 1
• Session 2
• Session 3

Session 1: Emerging Risks

In preparation for the 2021 Willis Research Network conference, the Emerging Risks hub ran a survey looking to gain insight into the emerging risks on the agenda of clients, colleagues and industry across key themes. Lucy Stanbrough, Head of Emerging Risks for the Willis Research Network, introduces how outputs from this survey are being used to populate rich narrative scenarios that draw together and highlight the interconnections between drivers and risks. These scenarios formed the basis of discussion between panel members representing key perspectives to highlight risks, opportunities, and how science can be used to support awareness and understanding.

• Emerging risks and Panel session: The Interconnected Risk Landscape

• Pandemics under the microscope: using science for resilience
  On October 8th 2020 the Willis Research Network hosted a webinar with our partner, Metabiota, to discuss how they use science to help business and countries build resilience.
• Emerging risks with Willis Re ERM and Willis Research Network
  Lucy Stanbrough joins Dave Ingram and Daniil Shalmiyev for the final ERM Webinar of 2020 on Emerging Risks.
• Willis Research Network Spotlight series: Elisabeth Braw
  Elisabeth Braw directs the Modern Deterrence project at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a Willis Research Network Partner. In this video she discusses how the project’s research applies to the industry and modern society.
• Impact of Pandemic in Life Programmes
  Inti Gomez, Head of Actuaries, Willis Re Latin America & Caribbean, and Miguel Araujo, London Reinsurance Broking & CAT Analytics Lead for Iberia, Willis Re

Session 2: The Digital Future

The next generation of technology will have profound implications for the way we work. The panel discussion brought together a number of perspectives on what the Digital Future means for technology.

Panellists

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Stuart Calam

Programme Director of Willis Research Network
Head of Technology Risks Research

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Prof. Peter Kawalek

Professor of Information Management, Director of the Centre for Information Management
Loughborough University

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Mark Galgano

Digital Advisor
Microsoft

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Jenn Kelly

Senior Director, Embark & Embark for Total Rewards
Willis Towers Watson

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The Digital Future

• Cyber attacks: from crime to nation-state tool of aggression
  The nature of our relationship with technology is increasingly complex and challenging and this evolution permeates across the risk landscape. Elisabeth Braw from the RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) Modern Deterrence Programme gives insight into the changing nature of cyber-attacks and what this means for business today.
• Toward AI 2.0: Transfer Learning
  Taken from the TECHNGI & WRN Artificial Intelligence and Next Generation Insurance Services conference, David Lopez lecturer in Digital Economy at Exeter University provides perspectives on transfer learning as a cornerstone for implementing Artificial Intelligence.
• Artificial Intelligence and Business Models
  Professor Chris Holland provides insight on the use of Artificial Intelligence in business models.
• Panel session on Cyber Risk Management
  A panel session from the 2019 WRN Conference featuring Andrew Hall (Willis Towers Watson), Matt Palmer (Willis Towers Watson), Elisabeth Braw (RUSI - Modern Deterrence programme), Prof. Andrew Martin (University of Oxford - Cyber Security Centre) and Pete Cooper (Pavisade) providing a tour d’horizon of the top cyber risks and trends, reflecting on how organisations are currently managing those risks.
• Willis Research Network Spotlight series: Alistair Milne
  Alistair Milne is a professor of financial economics at Loughborough University. He was previously at Cass Business School and also held positions at the Bank of England, the University of Surrey, London Business School, HM Treasury and the national statistics office of Malawi.
• Quarterly InsurTech Briefing Q1 2021
  This briefing explores the InsurTech’s InsurTech initiatives and thought leaders focused on the future of product and service.
• The Game of insurance - Tradeoffs in loss prevention and insurance
  Have you wondered how loss prevention affects your insurance costs? Brooks Kaiser will give insights to her empirical research on the understanding of the game of property insurance in the Danish market.

Session 3: Science for Resilience

COVID-19 made it clear that we must be prepared to expect the unexpected and change mindsets from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’. Our closing keynote address will be given by Lord Toby Harris, chairman of the National Preparedness Commission, who will share his thoughts on how stress tests and preparedness must be core to national and business strategy.

• Stress tests and preparedness must be core to national and business strategy
  Lord Toby Harris, Chair of the National Preparedness Commission

Our panel moderated by Hélène Galy, WRN Director, explored how the conversation is shifting from risk (and passive resilience) to active resilience (with its growth mindset), leading to a more positive evaluation of the business case for investment in resilience.

Moderator

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Helene Galy

Willis Research Network

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Panellists

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Lord Toby Harris

Chair of the National Preparedness Commission

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Patricia Mackenzie

Head of ERM
Willis Towers Watson

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Tim Hodgson

Co-head of the Thinking Ahead Institute
Willis Towers Watson

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Professor Jim Hall

Director of Research in the School of Geography and the Environment

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Simon Ruffle

Director of Research & Innovation
Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

• Automated Regulatory Compliance
  Prof. Alistair Milne, Professor of Financial Economics at Loughborough University discusses automated regulatory compliance and how lessons from RegTech in banking can be applied to the insurance industry.
• Panel session on Geopolitical Risks and Trends
  Neal Croft (Willis Towers Watson), Sir Richard Shirreff (Strategia Worldwide), Paul Davison (Willis Towers Watson: Financial Solutions) and Amalia Khachatryan (Oxford Analytica) discuss top Geopolitical risks and trends, risk mitigation strategies and how better insights can turn risk into opportunity from our 2019 WRN Conference.
• From Battlefield to Boardroom: Insights into geopolitical drivers of risk and opportunities
  Sir Richard Shirreff, NATO’s former Deputy Supreme Commander Europe, surveys the Geopolitical landscape and explores opportunities which boardrooms should consider in order to manage risk effectively.

Visit the Willis Research Network page for more information.