Supply chains have faced significant challenges throughout 2026, as climate impacts, cyberattacks, armed conflict and trade tensions increasingly converge to create a more complex and interconnected risk landscape.
The combined impact of intermittent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, renewed attacks in the Red Sea and interruptions to grain exports via the Black Sea underscores the increasing complexity of today's global trade environment.
With 2026 confirmed as an El Niño year, extreme weather has led to the return of draft constraints on the Danube River and at the Panama Canal. At the political level, uncertainty surrounding sanctions programs across the U.S., EU and China has increased tensions among long-established trading partners.
Despite these challenges, global raw material supply chains have demonstrated notable resilience. Organizations have continued to adapt by diversifying routes, rerouting cargo and strengthening risk management strategies to maintain the flow of essential goods and commodities.
Although prices have risen as supply pressures have increased, supply chains have adapted, moderating the effects of armed conflict and severe weather. Businesses continue to leverage alternative transportation routes, contingency planning and risk transfer solutions to support continuity and operational stability.
Geopolitical risks reshape global shipping routes
In the Middle East, unpredictable, intermittent access through the Strait of Hormuz continues to create uncertainty for vessel owners, operators and charterers. Ship and cargo owners are carefully assessing operational and personnel risks, while insurance solutions remain available to support trade continuity, albeit at elevated cost.
Simon Lockwood, Head of Shipowners, GB at Willis, notes that in a commercial market, rates can vary significantly between underwriters and vessel owners. However, vessels operating in the Gulf continue to face enhanced war risk premiums while calling at ports in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait.
“Before the conflict, the cost was zero. Now it is around 0.5% of the ship’s value to be insured per seven days,” he said. “During the ceasefire, the cost dropped by 20% to 30% compared to the height of the conflict, but prices continue to reflect a cautious market approach.”
Food and agriculture supply chains strengthen resilience
For agricultural businesses, risk is increasing across multiple fronts, raising the likelihood of longer-term impacts for both producers and consumers. The third Willis Global Food, Beverage & Agriculture Survey explored how businesses are preparing for and responding to today's volatile environment. The findings indicate that current conditions are proving challenging even for a sector where resilience has long been a defining characteristic.
Among the report's highest-priority warning signs are rising input costs for energy, fertilizers and transportation, alongside threats to production from climate-driven droughts, flooding and other extreme weather events. Labor shortages also remain a growing concern for many organizations across the agricultural value chain.
At a macro level, disruption to shipping and trade routes caused by conflicts and tariffs contributes to broader geopolitical instability, amplifying these pressures. The impact on shipping, whether through Black Sea export routes or in transit via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is set to have a material impact on costs and supply.
The speed at which new challenges can emerge, combined with the interconnected nature of global systems and supply chains, means an event that might once have remained localized can now have far-reaching global consequences within days.
An event that might once have remained localized can now have far-reaching global consequences within days.
“Before the conflict, the cost was zero. Now it is around 0.5% of the ship’s value to be insured per seven days”
The survey results suggest that organizations recognize the need for greater preparedness and are taking steps to strengthen business resilience. 83% of respondents reported having a formal business continuity planning process in place, with 50% stating that business continuity is managed at the board level and linked to key performance indicators, up from 44% in 2024.
Nearly half (47%) review and refresh their continuity plans every six months, while 34% do so quarterly, compared with 31% in previous surveys.
For commodity producers, growers, traders and manufacturers, these findings highlight both the scale of today's challenges and the importance of proactive risk management. The encouraging news is that a range of specialist risk solutions are available to help organizations navigate an increasingly uncertain environment.
How Willis can help
Willis works with clients across the shipping, cargo and supply chain sectors to help identify, assess and mitigate emerging risks.
Our cargo specialists work closely with clients to design tailored insurance programs that protect goods in transit and inventory throughout the supply chain, including Stock Throughput solutions. Coverage can be structured to address specific exposures such as temperature variation, delay-related spoilage and product contamination, helping organisations enhance supply chain resilience, safeguard asset values and support operational continuity.
In an environment where geopolitical events, climate impacts and supply chain disruption can quickly affect operations, our focus is on helping clients build resilience, protect critical assets and maintain business continuity.
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83%respondents reported having a formal business continuity planning process in place
