Gray-zone aggression has surged in recent years, revealing a critical trend: states engaging in this form of coercion are constantly innovating – making defence a moving target. Unlike traditional military aggression, gray-zone tactics exploit economic, technological, and reputational vulnerabilities. This means resilience cannot rest solely with governments; the private sector is increasingly in the crosshairs.
Businesses are becoming more concerned about these risks, yet awareness remains low. Understanding what gray-zone aggression is – and how such events might unfold – is essential. Willis Research Network partner Elisabeth Braw, shares key insights and three new scenarios to help risk leaders take action in 2026.
Five years earlier, gray-zone threats barely registered on corporate radars
Organizations must anticipate, adapt, and collaborate to strengthen their defenses and maintain continuity. In WTW’s 2025 Political Risk Survey [1], 77 per cent of executives interviewed expressed concern about the threat of economic retaliation as the method of gray-zone aggression of greatest concern, while 64 per cent were focused on state-sponsored cyber and 44 per cent on attacks on infrastructure. Five years earlier, gray-zone threats barely registered on corporate radars.[2]
Understanding gray-zone aggression
To understand gray-zone aggression as an emerging driver of geopolitical risk, the Willis Research Network, have partnered with Elisabeth Braw since 2019 to explore the topic and identify what global businesses can do to manage these threats proactively.
The findings from these discussions are shared in a report providing:
- An overview of gray-zone aggression, covering: what gray-zone aggression is, how the risk has evolved, why it’s so effective and why it’s so challenging to identify.
- Examples of suspected gray-zone aggression acts across key industries, highlighting why each industry is targeted, existing and potential methods and suspected precedent examples to inform executives as they challenge their risk and strategy plans; and
- Best practice guidance in five key areas to support executives navigate this growing threat, including challenge questions to test readiness.
Gray‑zone aggression is an enterprise‑level risk that spans departmental responsibilities; if there are knowledge gaps in the answers to those diagnostic questions, risk and strategy will need to be aligned to act.
Hidden threats, real impacts: scenario pathways of gray-zone aggression
Alongside this report, WTW clients can also request access to three new gray-zone aggression scenarios designed by Elisabeth Braw as part of the geopolitical risk research programme. The scenarios include:
- Shadow fleet grounds tankers in English Channel
- Three-pronged gray-zone aggression targets Poland
- Disinformation campaigns in Moldova
These scenarios are not predictions, but structured “what if” exercises intended to provoke discussion, raise awareness and support proactive risk management in the face of emerging and interconnected threats.
Request access
Complete our form to gain access to the gray-zone overview report today and email wrn to register your interest in receiving access to the full scenarios.
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