Every January, the crystal ball comes out. Risk professionals try to predict what will dominate the risk landscape in the coming year. History shows we rarely get it right; the future has a habit of surprising us, especially with emerging risks. But there’s wisdom in asking the crowd – not because it guarantees accuracy, but because it reveals what organisations believe will matter most. Those beliefs shape priorities, investments and resilience strategies.
Emerging risk discussions often gravitate towards the unknown – the shiny new threat. But truly “new” risks are rare. The International Risk Governance Council defines emerging risks as: “a risk that is new, or a familiar risk in a new or unfamiliar context or under new conditions (re‑emerging).”
That second part matters. Re‑emerging risks are where the real work lies. For 2026, looking inward – re‑examining known risks under new conditions – will deliver insights that matter now. It will also equip organisations to spot genuinely new risks early and respond effectively.
It’s not just what’s on the list, but how these risks collide and cascade that will challenge assumptions
When we asked respondents in WTW’s 2024 Emerging and Interconnected Risks Survey to look ahead two years – to 2026 – the top three drivers of emerging risk were clear: cyber, strategic performance and geopolitical risk. None of these are strangers to the risk register. They’re familiar risks under new conditions – re‑emerging risks that demand fresh thinking. We share what people chose and why so you can challenge your assumptions.
And then there’s a fourth dimension, one we believe most have overlooked: the interconnectivity of these risks. It’s not just what’s on the list, but how these risks collide and cascade that will challenge assumptions in 2026.
Take action
2026 will not be about chasing novelty. It will be about challenging what we think we know. Cyber, strategic performance, and geopolitical risk are not static – they’re shape‑shifting under pressure. And their interconnectivity is the wildcard most have missed. The question is: will your risk process keep pace? Revisit the four actions we shared last year – they have never been more important.
Footnotes
- Global Risks 2012 Seventh Edition. Return to article
- Quoted risk in the 2024 Emerging and Interconnected Risk Survey in “Strategic Performance”. Return to article
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