A review of 2025 and a look forward to 2026
The Crisis Management Annual Review 2026 from Willis, a WTW business, provides insights from our regional specialists and highlights the critical trends observed by our in‑house risk advisory and crisis support service, Alert:24. This year’s review explores the evolving dynamics of kidnap, extortion, accident and health, active assailant events, maritime piracy, terrorism, and political violence - risks that will continue to shape the global operating environment in 2026.
2025 was a year of escalating complexity. Intensified geopolitical competition, shifting alliances, widening economic disparities, and the resurgence of major interstate conflicts created a markedly volatile risk landscape. Even as some conflicts wound down, others ignited with unprecedented speed and severity.
Despite a decline in mass shooting and mass murder statistics, politically motivated violence surged. High‑profile assassinations, targeted attacks on public officials, and mass civil unrest-particularly in response to immigration enforcement and rising polarization – kept organizations on heightened alert.
Kidnapping and extortion risks persisted across the region, with notable increases in Colombia, Peru, and Mexico. The reconfiguration of criminal networks, stagnating peace negotiations and intensifying U.S. military pressure in the Caribbean reshaped threat dynamics. Social unrest remained volatile, particularly in countries facing governance challenges and expanding organized crime.
The war in Ukraine entered a destructive new phase, with dramatic increases in Russian missile and drone volumes. Meanwhile, Russia’s hybrid warfare campaign expanded across Europe, targeting critical infrastructure, aviation, and commercial assets. Crypto‑linked kidnappings rose sharply in France, underscoring a new frontier in financially motivated violence. Although overall protest activity dipped following Europe’s ‘Year of Elections,’ civil unrest remained prominent around issues such as immigration, economic insecurity, and the Gaza conflict.
The region was defined by two major developments: the intense 12‑day Iran–Israel war in June and the subsequent Gaza ceasefire in October. Although the ceasefire held, the pathway toward disarmament, withdrawal, and long‑term governance in Gaza remains fraught. Iran’s regional influence weakened significantly following heavy losses to its military, leadership and proxy networks, though the potential for renewed low‑level hostilities persists.
Gen-Z‑led protest movements emerged as a powerful force in North Africa, most notably in Morocco, where socioeconomic frustrations and governance concerns catalyzed mass demonstrations.
Conflict deepened across Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali – each experiencing territorial fragmentation, mass displacement, and a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation. Jihadist groups expanded their operational reach, increasing kidnaps for ransom and cross‑border attacks. Political volatility escalated, marked by coups and attempted coups in Guinea‑Bissau, Benin, and Madagascar.
The region saw significant civil unrest driven by economic strain, youth movements, corruption and governance concerns. Interstate conflicts among India–Pakistan, Thailand–Cambodia, and Pakistan–Afghanistan disrupted aviation, trade, and regional security. Internal conflicts persisted in Myanmar, while terrorism surged across Pakistan and Afghanistan.
01
Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Sahel and South Asia widened in scope, creating spillover effects from airspace closures to widespread supply‑chain disruption.
02
Threat notifications increased significantly, driven by active assailant events and heightening political tensions, particularly in the United States.
03
Kidnap‑for‑ransom incidents rose sharply across several regions, while virtual and express kidnapping techniques accelerated, supported by AI‑enabled deception and sophisticated social‑engineering tactics.
04
Youth‑driven protest movements surged from Morocco to Nepal, Madagascar, Europe and Latin America - generating new unpredictability for business operations in major cities.
05
Drone incursions, sabotage, and targeted influence operations expanded, exposing vulnerabilities across aviation networks, critical infrastructure, and defense‑adjacent sectors.
The year ahead is likely to be defined by continued geopolitical fragmentation, elevated protest activity and an increasingly adaptive threat environment. Organizations will need to refine crisis management plans, strengthen situational intelligence, enhance travel‑risk programs and ensure resilience strategies are responsive to rapidly shifting global conditions.
If you would like to delve deeper into any of the topics or regions covered by the review, please speak to your contact at Willis, or the contacts listed below.
