Global stability is fracturing. Economic realignments, geopolitical rivalries, and technological disruption are reshaping the international order. North America—long a pillar of global leadership—now faces pressures to make sustainable, strategic decisions. The clean energy transition is not just environmental—it’s geopolitical, economic, and technological.
Traditional energy markets have long underpinned global stability, but geopolitical shocks—from Middle East tensions to Europe’s reliance on Russian gas—underscore the need for energy resilience. The Trump administration has successfully issued swathes of executive orders and federal directives to support domestication of natural resource supply chains, while limiting reliance and relations with international markets.
Key legislative and executive restrictions that impact renewable energy:
The headlines are overwhelming the wider narrative. Although incentives and support for clean energy technologies have been repealed, renewable energy offers North America a pathway to resilience.
“Despite shifting geopolitical dynamics, renewable energy projects in North America remain active and robust in the near term. Although the long-term outlook is less certain, the current ecosystem—including insurance—continues to experience strong activity”
Andrew Rubin | Director, Tax Insurance Practice, Alternative Asset Insurance Solutions
Pre- and post-the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) predictions for renewable generation index drops from 190 to 140 by 2035 [1]. The speed of growth for renewable energy generation is limited under new regulations, but opportunities endure. “Despite shifting geopolitical dynamics, renewable energy projects in North America remain active and robust in the near term. Although the long-term outlook is less certain, the current ecosystem—including insurance—continues to experience strong activity”, Andrew Rubin, Director, Tax Insurance Practice, Alternative Asset Insurance Solutions.
Despite the loss of tax credits to solar and wind projects which signal that renewable energy in the U.S. is in a consolidation period, tax credits remain available to emerging renewable technologies.
“Tax credits are available for renewable natural gas, where an uptick in investment is making the technology a competitive opportunity for companies keen to diversify their energy mix”
Alex Forand | North America Renewable Energy Leader, Natural Resources.
“Tax credits are available for renewable natural gas, where an uptick in investment is making the technology a competitive opportunity for companies keen to diversify their energy mix”, Alex Forand, North America Renewable Energy Leader, Natural Resources. For business leaders, these opportunities are driving a rethink of procurement strategies and capital allocation. “Previously, the security of government backing gave companies opportunities to invest in clean technologies, but now, profitability is at the top of the agenda and investors and stakeholders are more cautious to spend capital on unknown technologies”, Andreea Merewitz, Managing Director, Resilience Practice, BDO.
Capital-heavy developers will have opportunities to acquire assets—such as wind and solar—that are now less profitable under the OBBBA. Although cutting tax credits could signal less room for innovation, renewable energy remains a way to anchor a strategic advantage. There’s scope for innovation, but the goal posts have moved. Business leaders will need to rethink and realign their strategies.
“As North America reduces reliance on imported oil and gas, renewable infrastructure becomes a strategic asset, particularly as the investment in data centers continues to increase exponentially. Investment in in grids and power will be non-negotiable, it’s inevitable”, Daisy McAndrew, freelance geopolitical and economic radio and TV presenter, reporter and writer.
“As North America reduces reliance on imported oil and gas, renewable infrastructure becomes a strategic asset, particularly as the investment in data centers continues to increase exponentially. Investment in in grids and power will be non-negotiable, it’s inevitable”
Daisy McAndrew | Freelance geopolitical and economic radio and TV presenter, reporter and writer
Renewable energy is a technology race. Advances in battery storage and smart grids will define the next era of economic leadership. While China maintains its position as the renewable manufacturing major, adding over 212 GW of new solar and 51 GW of new wind capacity while the U.S. will add less than 100 GW combined, all while the U.S. is jostling to be the world leader in data centers.
| Metric | U.S. | China |
|---|---|---|
| Hyperscale data centers | 642 (54%) | 190 (16%) |
| Capacity (GW) | 53.7 (44%) | 19.6 (16%) |
| Market value ($) | 171.9 billion | 84.4 billion |
| Total facilities | 4165 | 450+ |
Projections show the U.S. will continue to expand its capacity and market share, with electricity consumption by U.S. data centers set to more than double by 2030. The continued growth of data centers will need powering, suggesting the renewable energy agenda isn’t entirely off the cards.
The Trump administration’s approach to immigration could reduce the pool of workers available to support the ongoing growth of data centers. “AI isn’t just the tail that’s wagging the dog, it’s the dog. Technology companies are the wealth of the American economy. While data centers are primarily at risk of falling down the brain drain, natural resources companies will need to prepare for escalating demand.
Business leaders will need to bolster their workforce to prepare for the uptick in power demand. Will the tech center burst its bubble? Certainly, we’re poised for corrective measures, but how domestic and foreign policy will adapt, is something to watch”, Daisy McAndrew.
Political polarization complicates climate policy, but societal pressure for sustainability is intensifying. The “new world disorder” is reshaping global priorities, and renewable energy is at the heart of this transformation. For North American businesses, the green transition is not off the table. There are pockets of opportunity for emerging renewable technologies, particularly for power generation to support the growth of data centers. While geopolitical headwinds continue to blow, building resilience will be critical to withstand political and economic volatility. Risk management is at the core.
“Over the long term, tax insurance and renewable energy in the U.S. remain interconnected and resilient. Regulatory changes, statutory adjustments, and industry headwinds may pose challenges, but they are unlikely to halt investment, with tax insurance continuing to play a vital role” Andrew Rubin, Director, Tax Insurance Practice, Alternative Asset Insurance Solutions. Tax insurance covers losses from disallowed credits, penalties, interest, and legal costs, giving investors and developers confidence that expected tax benefits will materialize. By reducing counterparty risk and providing certainty, tax insurance has a role in facilitating project financing and supporting cash flow for renewable energy projects.
But more broadly, tax insurance can support the growing renewable energy sector through intricate partnership structures and evolving tax laws—a critical asset in risk managers’ toolkits in North America for the foreseeable future.
Contact our risk and insurance specialists to explore how to define the future of your business.
