Renewable Energy Market Review 2025
Last year, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) was flushed with funding from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).[1] Today, the IRS will be lucky to maintain even a portion of its pre-IRA budget.
The IRA – a cornerstone of the Biden administration’s activities – was signed into law in August 2022 and gave the IRS $79.4 billion in funding to transform tax administration and to improve enforcement[2]. In response to this funding, the Department of the Treasury and IRS announced in September 2023 a Strategic Operating Plan for the fiscal year 2023-2031[3]. Under the plan, of the $79.4 billion provided to the IRS under the IRA, the IRS allocated $45.6 billion (over 57%) to enforcement over the 2023-2031 period.[3]
To implement this plan, the IRS made two significant announcements relevant to the renewable industry:
With these structural changes, practitioners were advising clients to expect increased audits of pass-through entities, better trained auditors on partnership issues, likelihood of improved IRS identification of potential noncompliance, and a better deployment of audit reserves.
By the end of 2024, the IRS looked poised to do some serious enforcement.
2025 changes at a glance:
The IRS is on track to lose nearly a third of its workforce this year after about 20,000 employees accepted a second deferred resignation offer – an opportunity to resign and be placed on paid administrative leave through the end of September.[7]
Losing 20,000 employees alongside natural attrition due to retirement, would bring the agency’s total staff to about 70,000, effectively undoing the hiring blitz of technical experts funded by the IRA.[7]
This planned reduction is happening in the midst of a planned promulgation of a new tax bill – dubbed ‘the big beautiful bill’[8], which is expected to modify provisions relating to the IRA, with new restrictions, new definitions, and new analysis in need of interpretation.
The implication of these abrupt resignations and reduction in work force suggest that, at least for the short term, the IRS will need to narrow its audit focus and scale up on the threshold size of an issue that would be picked up for audit.
Tax credits, given their prominence in the IRS and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) organizational structure, will likely stay an audit focus, but its impact will likely be felt more by large developers and large banks claiming the tax credits and the large corporate taxpayers purchasing them.
After pulling $3.7 billion in clean energy funding[9] and suspending all funding disbursements under the IRA, clean energy projects are unable to rely confidently on federal support. Private equity and other investments are under pressure to keep renewable energy projects moving. But private investment in clean energy manufacturing, which reached $89 billion in two years[10], faces uncertainty due to the administration’s stance and regulatory delays. Some companies are reconsidering or halting projects, particularly in hydrogen electrolyzer manufacturing and electric vehicle supply chains, due to unclear tax credit regulations and policy shifts[11].
“Unlocking project financing is a major priority for the renewables sector and without a doubt, tax insurance will have to play a part in continuing to facilitate tax credit claims and transfers in this period of uncertainty.” Shirley Chin, Head of Tax Insurance, North America
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Tax insurance eliminates the uncertainty inherent in tax compliance by transferring the risk of loss arising from a tax challenge to an insurance company, creating a more stable financial and operating environment to secure financing, stabilize supply chains and revenue flows, and pursue growth opportunities.
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An effective tax leader can craft a legal position on open tax questions, ensure internal buy-in and consistency, analyze the cost vs. benefit of obtaining tax insurance, and defend the tax position if and when challenged.
Download the full article to find out more about how you can take action to managing tax risks amid geopolitical volatility.
| Title | File Type | File Size |
|---|---|---|
| Two key steps renewable energy companies can take to manage tax risks in the U.S. | .3 MB |