Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 – Surety

Rate predictions: Surety

	Trend	Range
Commercial surety		Flat
Contract surety		Flat
International		Flat
M&A		Flat to small increases

Commercial Surety

Key Takeaways

• Tariff activity significantly influences economic trends, driving unprecedented demand for customs bond capacity.
• Strong support exists across all credit profiles, with innovative solutions required to address complex customs bond scenarios.

Contract Surety

Key Takeaways

• Contract underwriting results remain stable, with modest growth in the backlog and order book development for most contractors.
• Construction spending continues at a steady pace, fostering a stable environment for contracting firms.

International Surety

Key takeaways

• International Surety remains attractive to carriers as strong premium growth and improving portfolio quality have carriers establishing new operations in emerging markets and maintaining international surety operations even as other P&C lines are divested.
• In addition, multinational surety reinsurance is in high demand due to local carriers’ net retention constraints in key emerging markets.
• Strong regulation remains essential to ensure new international surety markets have similar structures and protections as developed surety markets.

M&A Surety

Key Takeaways

• M&A underwriters exhibit strong interest in small to mid-size programs, while large programs require greater scrutiny of capital structure and liquidity.
• In the M&A market, both financial and strategic buyers are actively seeking attractive opportunities to deploy capital.
• Despite the potential for declining interest rates, transaction activity remains robust.