Insurance Marketplace Realities 2026 – Trade credit

Rate predictions: Trade credit

	Trend	Range
Typical year-on-year rate movement		-5% to flat

Key takeaways

• Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, market conditions for new insureds remain favorable
• On a macroeconomic scale, business bankruptcies have been rising steadily, quarter-over-quarter, since the second quarter of 2022
• Major insurers are reporting double-digit percentage growth in both the number and total value of claims submitted
• Despite the surge in claim activity, pricing for new insureds entering the market continues to remain highly competitive
• Indications from insurers serving financial institutions remain extremely competitive, marked by aggressive rates and flexible risk acceptance
• The effect of tariffs on the economy will hinge on final tariff levels and the objectives set by the U.S. administration, which should become clearer as initial bilateral agreements are reached with U.S. trading partners. The prevailing assumption is that some sector-specific tariffs may persist while others are negotiated away in exchange for reduced retaliation, commitments to purchase U.S. goods, quotas, or even geopolitical and currency-related agreements