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Press Release

Willis predicts natural catastrophes will not offer insurance any respite in 2025

July 30, 2025

natural-catastrophe|Willis Research Network
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SYDNEY, July 30, 2025 — Natural catastrophes continue to put a strain on global insurance markets, according to the latest Natural Catastrophe Review published today by Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), a leading global advisory, broking, and solutions company.

Worldwide, insured losses from natural catastrophes now consistently exceed USD 100 billion per year. It’s been six years since the insurance industry last experienced a year with low losses from natural catastrophes. Events so far in 2025 indicate that losses exceeding USD 100 billion will very likely continue for at least one more year.

Key trends include:

  • Exceptional natural catastrophes: So far, major events in 2025 include the Los Angeles wildfires (globally, the worst wildfire event ever with respect to insured losses), the worst wildfires in Japan and South Korea in at least a generation, the third-most active year on record for tornadoes in the United States, the first landfalling cyclone near Brisbane, Australia in 50 years, and the highest wind speed ever recorded over Ireland.
  • Natural catastrophes under climate change: The severity and scale of recent catastrophes underlines the need to confront a new era of climate extremes. Risk managers must reassess the risk, integrate climate forecasts into their plans, and ensure insurance and risk frameworks are optimised for today’s evolving threats. Data-driven strategies are needed to narrow protection gaps and stay resilient in a rapidly changing world.
  • Leveraging scientific advances to mitigate future risks: The Review presents a forward view on natural catastrophe risk for the remainder of 2025 and early 2026. It also provides concrete advice on how to make the most of seasonal weather forecasts and identifies geographic regions that may be exposed to elevated catastrophe risk during the next three to six months.

In Australia, cyclone landfalls are historically concentrated along the country’s northern coast. But for the first time in 50 years, Cyclone Alfred made a southerly landfall near Brisbane in March 2025. That resulted in over AUD 2.6 billion of insured losses and exposed the vulnerability of southern coastal regions that historically have not faced tropical cyclone impacts. The storm’s slow movement and intense rainfall triggered widespread flooding, power outages, and over 100,000 insurance claims, testing the resilience of infrastructure and the newly established Cyclone Reinsurance Pool.

Dr Christopher Au, Head of APAC Climate Risk Centre at Willis said: “As climate change drives cyclones further south and increases rainfall intensity, regions like Southeast Queensland and New South Wales must reassess building codes and preparedness strategies.

“Meanwhile, unprecedented wildfires in Japan and South Korea underscore how climate change is reshaping fire risk across Asia Pacific, including bushfire in Australia. Longer, hotter fire seasons and expanding development into forested areas are creating new zones of exposure. As global efforts struggle to keep temperatures below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, our focus must now turn to adapting and building resilience against a broader spectrum of climate-driven threats.

Companies can respond with tailored risk mitigation and adaptation strategies, with insurance solutions such as parametric products helping address this changing risk profile.”

Dr Christopher Au | Head of APAC Climate Risk Centre, Willis

“Companies can respond with tailored risk mitigation and adaptation strategies, with insurance solutions such as parametric products helping address this changing risk profile. By combining granular data, local expertise and innovative risk transfer mechanisms, we can help businesses build resilience against the rising threat of natural catastrophe risks in Asia Pacific.”

The Willis Natural Catastrophe Review is a biannual publication that provides insights into recent natural catastrophes and shares expert views on the risks posed by major perils. It sets out the causes and effects of major catastrophes in 2025 to date and goes beyond the headlines to identify the underlying factors that made them possible. The Review also provides an expert outlook for the rest of the year and into 2026, exploring potential threats from hurricanes, drought, flood and other hazards.

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