Inflation and increased healthcare use are driving forces behind largest increase in 15 years
LONDON, October 13, 2022 — Widespread inflation and increasing healthcare use are combining to drive projected increases in global healthcare benefit cost to their highest level in nearly 15 years, according to a survey of global medical insurers conducted by WTW, (NASDAQ: WTW), a leading global advisory, broking and solutions company. The survey found little relief in sight with over three-fourths of insurers (78%) anticipating higher or significantly higher increases over the next three years.
The 2023 Global Medical Trends Survey reveals that the healthcare benefit cost trend rose from 8.2% in 2021 to a higher than anticipated 8.8% in 2022 – and is projected to rise yet further in 2023 to a stubbornly high global average of 10%. The cost trend increases will hit many regions including Latin America, where average increases are projected to climb from 18.2% to 18.9%, Asia Pacific (6.9% to 10.2%), and the Middle East and Africa (10.5% to 11.5%).
Even Europe, which has traditionally seen much smaller cost increases, is not excluded from the record levels of trend. For 2023, average increases in Europe are expected to rise to 8.6%, versus 8.0% in 2022. The one region with an expected decrease in medical trend is North America where trend is projected to drop from 9.4% in 2022 to 6.5% in 2023, although employers are not necessarily seeing this yet.
In the UK, private medical insurance costs are expected to increase by 8.8% in 2023, marginally above the European average, but significantly higher than this year’s 6.8% increase.
“Worldwide inflation and a rise in healthcare use in the wake of the pandemic are delivering a one-two punch on medical costs around the globe,” said Kevin Newman, Head of Health and Benefits Europe, WTW. “The bottom line is that these large increases are unsustainable. Employers and insurers will need to develop strategies and solutions to rein in costs to more manageable levels.”
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 projected | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global+ | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% |
| North America | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.5% |
| Latin America+ | 15.1% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| Asia Pacific | 9.8% | 6.9% | 10.2% |
| Europe | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% |
| United Kingdom | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.8% |
| Middle East/Africa | 12.4% | 10.5% | 11.5% |
The leading driver of medical costs, according to insurers, continues to be overuse of care (74%) due to medical professionals recommending too many services or overprescribing. Over half of insurers (52%) also indicate that insured members’ poor health habits are among the top factors. The underuse of preventive services (50%) is also a significant cost driver and increased year-over-year due to, in part, the avoidance of medical care during the pandemic.
Insurers identified cancer, cardiovascular and musculoskeletal as the top three conditions by cost, identical to last year’s findings. Interestingly, respondents ranked musculoskeletal as the top condition by incidence of claims this year compared with ranking it fifth last year.
The survey also revealed telehealth continues to gain traction in health delivery and cost management, moving up from number three in last year’s survey to number two this year. Insurers again ranked contracted networks of providers (70%) as the most effective method for managing medical costs.
“Healthcare affordability remains top of mind for insurers, employers and employees. As we move into next year, we see a challenging year for employers in trying to balance the convergence of rising medical trend, salary pressures and the need to continue to make progress on DE&I initiatives globally, all while dealing with potential recessionary markets,” said Francis Coleman, Managing Director, integrated & Global Solutions, WTW.
WTW conducted its 2023 Global Medical Trends Survey between July and September 2022. A total of 257 leading insurers representing 55 countries participated in the survey. The U.S. medical trend data are drawn from other WTW research.
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