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When the furnaces go cold: What recent industrial losses teach us about business interruption

By William Fremlin-Key , Ryan Medlin and Dan Baker | October 27, 2025

Recent losses in the steel and aluminum industries have reminded us that property damage is only the beginning.
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There are lessons to be learned from recent losses in the metals sector, primary of which is that the businesses that recover fastest are the ones that planned their claim strategy long before the loss occurred. Designing business interruption and contingent business interruption policies to respond after a loss event is critical to reinstate operations, but specialist brokers are key to ensure coverage triggers are consistent with real operational risk.

Recent fires and unplanned outages across the U.S. steel and aluminum sectors have underscored a truth the insurance industry knows all too well—the real cost of a loss often isn’t in the flames, but in the downtime that follows.

Key hazards include

  • Molten metal exposures
  • Heavy usage of natural gas
  • Ignitable liquid hazards: High-pressure hydraulic equipment; lubricating oils; rolling fluids, etc.
  • Combustible metal dust
  • Long lead time unique equipment (arc furnaces, transformers, large electric motors, gear boxes, machine castings, hydraulic rams, rolling mill frames)

Specific operations in steel and aluminum making processes (e.g. – smelters, anode production, arc furnaces, casters, preheating and heat treatment ovens and furnaces, rolling mills) and finishing operations (e.g. – slitting, stretching, milling, coating and painting, anodizing and plating, polishing) all carry additional inherent hazards, each of which have attributed to major historical losses in the industry.

When a critical manufacturing plant goes offline—whether due to fire, explosion, or equipment failure—the disruption can ripple far beyond the facility’s walls. In an interconnected supply chain, one outage can cascade across industries, halting production for suppliers, customers, and end users.

For property insurance professionals, these events reaffirm why business interruption (BI) and contingent business interruption (CBI) exposures demand the same rigor and attention as the property damage itself, both before and after a loss.

The pre-loss challenge: Valuing the invisible

Proper BI valuation isn’t just about filling out a worksheet, it’s about understanding how a business generates revenue, what drives its margins, and how long it would truly take to recover. Resilient metals companies harness the insights and resources they need to make smart risk decisions long before an incident occurs.

Many insureds underestimate this process. Rebuilding a facility within 12 months doesn’t necessarily mean operations can resume as business as usual in this same timeframe. In reality, regulatory delays, supply shortages, customer attrition, and equipment lead times can stretch the “period of restoration” far beyond the physical rebuild.

At Willis, our Forensic Accounting and Valuation Services team assists clients through robust pre-loss evaluation. Forward-thinking metals companies will need to harness:

  • Operational modeling: Forecast production capacity and sales by product line (as well as commodity/product price projections where relevant) to reveal where the most sensitive revenue streams lie
  • Margin mapping: Distinguish fixed and variable costs to determine true insurable gross earnings, this could include take or pay contracts for power and other inputs
  • Scenario stress testing: Model realistic downtime scenarios—six months, 12 months, or longer—to see how revenue, cost, and market share might respond
  • Dependency mapping: Identify critical suppliers, customers, and logistics partners that could trigger contingent losses
  • Supply chains: Identify and understand expected and projected lead times for critical components or equipment that may influence your ability to rebuild and recover
  • Data discipline: Maintain records that can later prove “what would have happened” absent a loss — budgets, forecasts, and trend analyses.

By treating BI analysis as a living financial model rather than an annual formality, businesses can avoid surprises in the hectic post loss environment.”

Ryan Medlin | Managing Director, Willis Natural Resources, North America

“Too often, insureds only discover the gaps in their BI valuation when it’s too late. By treating BI analysis as a living financial model rather than an annual formality, businesses can avoid surprises in the hectic post loss environment.” Ryan Medlin, Managing Director, Willis Natural Resources, North America.

Post-loss reality: Turning complexity into clarity

When a major incident does occur, attention quickly shifts from operations to recovery—which includes proving both the physical damage and the financial impact. Loss adjusters, forensic accountants and insurers will all ask the same question: What would your business have earned if this event had not happened? This question is resolved more accurately and quickly when pre-loss assessments have been completed and conveyed to insurers ahead of the loss.

The most successful BI recoveries share the following best practices:

  • Pre-loss modeling and exposure analysis
  • Document every change: From production logs to purchase orders, contemporaneous data supports your case
  • Capture extra expense: Overtime, alternate facilities, and expedited freight are recoverable if they reduce the total loss
  • Coordinate property and BI timelines: Delays in rebuilding directly affect the period of indemnity; ensure both are aligned from day one. We often see delays due to long lead times on equipment but also delays in permitting and regulatory compliance are also significant in the current environment
  • Account for ramp-up: Returning to full capacity is rarely immediate. Partial operations must be modeled accuratel
  • Engage experts early: Forensic accountants and claim specialists can turn scattered operational data into a defensible BI calculation

In the aftermath of a major industrial event, the businesses that recover fastest are the ones that planned their claim strategy long before the loss occurred.

Contingent business interruption: The ripple effect

In heavy industry, few companies operate in isolation. Mills depend on smelters, smelters depend on power suppliers, and downstream manufacturers depend on steady material flow.

This interdependence is at the core of CBI income loss caused by physical damage at suppliers, customers, or other dependent properties.

When a key producer in the steel or aluminum value chain goes down, ripple effects can stretch for months and in extreme situations, years. Auto manufacturers, construction suppliers, and metal fabricators all feel the impact—even though their own plants have suffered no direct damage from the incident.

CBI exposures require intentional identification and underwriting. A lack of consideration in this area typically leads to uninsured loss at worst or underinsured recovery at best. Every insured should ask themselves:

  • Who are our critical suppliers and customers? Does our ability to generate revenue rely on any third-party infrastructure such as railways and port facilities?
  • Are those relationships and exposures explicitly covered by our policy wording?
  • Do we have sublimits or waiting periods that would leave us overly exposed?
  • Are perils like flood or earthquake covered at those third-party locations?
  • Is our coverage restricted to domestic sites, or truly global?

Without this clarity, even a well-structured BI program can fail when a loss occurs outside your fence line.

Lessons from recent industry losses

The recent spate of fires and outages in the metals sector should serve as a wake-up call for insureds operating in this space but also in the broader industrial marketplace.

These incidents reveal three persistent truths about property risk:

  1. BI losses very often exceed the cost to rebuild or repair. For large manufacturing operations, downtime and lost production often represent the largest and most costly portion of the claim
  2. Supply chains amplify loss severity. A single disruption can idle multiple customers, distributors, and suppliers, compounding the exposurE
  3. Preparation determines recoverability. Insureds who can prove their revenue trajectory, cost structure, and dependency network recover faster — and more fully.

In short, the event itself isn’t what determines the financial outcome — the quality of preparation does.

Translate operational complexity into insurable clarity

At Willis, our team of property brokers and forensic accountants translate operational complexity into insurable clarity. This means:

  • Facilitating pre-loss BI modeling and dependency mapping
  • Challenging clients to think beyond the “building and equipment” mindset
  • Negotiating policy wordings that address true exposure, including extended indemnity periods and layered dependencies
  • Coordinating with insurers to ensure sublimits, waiting periods, and coverage triggers are consistent with real operational risk

Business interruption is not an accounting exercise, it’s a survival strategy. These coverages are the firewall between a company’s balance sheet and financial disaster.

Recent losses in the steel and aluminum industries have reminded us that property damage is only the beginning. The real question is: how long until the business and its customers are whole again? In a world where one plant’s outage can idle an entire sector, the difference between recovery and collapse lies in preparation, data discipline, and coverage design.

Because when the furnaces go cold, the companies that planned ahead keep the lights on.

To find out how to build resilience against business interruption, contact our team.

Authors


Global Head of Mining, Natural Resources
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Managing Director, Willis Natural Resources, North America

Senior Property Risk Control Consultant
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Mining and metals contact


Nicki Tilney
Head of Construction and Natural resources, Asia

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