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Global aggregate bonds: Review and rethink your line up

December 4, 2023

We encourage asset owners to review their allocations to global aggregate bonds to check they are still suitable for their needs
Investments
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We have argued that asset owners should consider moving away from investing in strategies benchmarked to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. This enables a more focused portfolio construction approach, with for example, specific allocations to government and corporate bonds established. However, we understand that many asset owners invest in global aggregate strategies for various reasons. With this in mind, we have refreshed our manager line up and encourage asset owners to review their allocations to global aggregate bonds to check they are still suitable for their needs.

Asset owners invest in global aggregate bonds for several reasons

  • To serve as the main defensive part of the portfolio and act as a key diversifier (against equity market risk);
  • Regulatory requirements. For example, Australian superannuation funds may invest in global aggregate as a way of lowering overall portfolio tracking error to the “Your Future, Your Super” performance test benchmarks (noting that the fixed income benchmarks available have been broadened since the initial version of the test); while
  • Governance constrained asset owners may prefer to access broad credit under a single strategy.

Recognising that many institutional investors still invest in these strategies, we reviewed and refreshed our line up. As part of our process, we rated two new managers. We also removed (“downgraded”) two from our line up. Skill factors are not static, and things change at the manager, such as corporate events and senior retirements for example. This has led to team instability at a number of houses and has reduced our conviction in their capabilities.

Refreshing our global aggregate manager line up

We screened the investable universe qualitatively and quantitatively. We also screened managers for holding appropriate licencing arrangements in place for our global client base.

The number of managers asset owners use depends on client specific governance requirements. As many of our clients invest across multiple global aggregate managers, we evaluated how correlated candidates’ excess returns were with our existing line up (“existing managers”) and each other, as shown in Figure 1 below.[1] High correlation with our existing line up is not a reason to discard a manager from the search and we recognise that our clients want choices when undertaking selection activity. However, we believe hiring multiple managers that behave in the same way can be undesirable, particularly during times of market stress. To encourage our clients to select managers that can offer differentiated returns, candidates that were highly correlated with our existing line up or with each other were less likely to proceed to the next round of the process.

Correlation table comparing existing and potential global aggregate managers' excess returns
Figure 1. Illustrative 5-year correlation analysis of existing and potential global aggregate managers' excess returns over the global aggregate index

We then conducted a series of meetings with the managers on the shortlist. Our areas of focus included:

  • Team overview and who is responsible for investment decisions
  • Process, including portfolio construction and risk management
  • Credit analyst deep dives to understand if the analysts could express differentiated views and reflect ESG considerations
  • Sustainability with a focus on ESG integration, engagement and reporting
  • Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), including ensuring the manager has appropriate policies and initiatives in place

We awarded "Preferred" ratings to two new managers who we believe to be best in class. We had previously removed two managers from our list, reflecting our reduced conviction in the ability of these managers to generate sustainable alpha for our clients.

What value can WTW add?

  • We have awarded Preferred ratings to two new strategies, which we believe are among the best in class and are positioned to add significant value on a risk adjusted basis net of all costs
  • Our managers meet our sustainable investing and DEI minimum standards, which we believe are financially material issues
  • We negotiated commercial terms with the newly appointed asset managers, securing an average management fee saving of approximately 65%[2] compared to rack rates

Now is the time to review your global aggregate manager line up

It may have been some time since asset owners last reviewed their global aggregate manager line up. Our recommendation to disaggregate global aggregate strategies is unchanged, however we recognise some asset owners may need to invest in strategies benchmarked to the global aggregate bond index. We have therefore undertaken an extensive review of the universe and have refreshed our ratings. We encourage asset owners to undertake a review of their existing exposures, with a view to potentially disaggregating the aggregate or refreshing their line up.

Please reach out to your client consultant who can provide further information on how WTW can help you review your existing managers and suggest changes as necessary.

Footnotes

  1. Source: eVestment as at December 2022. Data provided on a monthly basis between December 2017 and December 2022. Note: Data is for USD unhedged share classes gross of fees.Return to article
  2. Assuming an aggregated WTW client commitment of US$100 million into a pooled vehicle. Not including expenses and additional fees for currency hedging.Return to article

Disclaimer

This material was prepared for general information purposes only and should not be considered a substitute for specific professional advice. In particular, its contents are not intended by WTW to be construed as the provision of investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice or recommendations of any kind, or to form the basis of any decision to do or to refrain from doing anything. As such, this document should not be relied upon for investment or other financial decisions and no such decisions should be taken on the basis of its contents without seeking specific advice.

This document is based on information available to WTW at the date of issue, and takes no account of subsequent developments. In addition, past performance is not indicative of future results. In producing this document WTW has relied upon the accuracy and completeness of certain data and information obtained from third parties. This document may not be reproduced or distributed to any other party, whether in whole or in part, without WTW’s prior written permission, except as may be required by law. In the absence of its express written permission to the contrary, WTW and its affiliates and their respective directors, officers and employees accept no responsibility and will not be liable for any consequences howsoever arising from any use of or reliance on the contents of this document including any opinions expressed herein.

This document is intended for Professional Investors in Hong Kong and Institutional Investors in Singapore, as defined by the respective regulatory authorities. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong or Singapore. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the offer. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document you should obtain independent professional advice.

WTW’s Investments line of business is registered under the name ‘Towers Watson Investment Services Hong Kong Limited’ with the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (Dealing in Securities), Type 4 (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 (Asset Management) regulated activities. It is also registered with the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority as a Principal Intermediary.

Contacts


Kate Hollis
Global Head of Credit Manager Research
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Sophie Pierce, CFA
Credit Manager Research
email Email

Associate, Manager Research
email Email

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