We offer our portfolio priorities to help investors avoid unwelcome surprises in 2023 and 2024:
Demand and supply conditions in the major advanced economies remain out of balance. Inflation, interest rates, and growth are likely to remain volatile in 2023/24.
Asset market pricing implies a rapid fall in inflation to central bank targets, cuts in policy rates, and only a moderate slowdown in economic and corporate earnings growth.
We think this understates the potential for higher than expected inflation, higher than expected interest rates, and/or lower than expected growth.
