Managing the new economic risks in commodity trading

The global economy is entering a new era of volatility, driven by external shocks, geopolitical tensions and rising inflation. The commodity trading sector, which has historically been adept at navigating volatile markets, is now being confronted with heightened uncertainty. Against this backdrop, understanding and managing new economic risks will be crucial for commodity traders to thrive.

Commodity trading in uncertain times

The commodity trading sector is again operating in a world of sharper shocks and shifting rules. To understand how leading global commodity traders view this new economic risk landscape, Willis, a WTW business, and Oxford Analytica convened a panel of senior external-affairs and risk leaders, representing commodity trading executives across Latin America, North America, Western Europe and Japan. Oxford Analytica and Willis conducted in-depth interviews with these professionals, to produce an economic risk radar of the top risks commodity traders face for 2025-26.

The top five economic risks facing the commodity trading sector

• Tariffs
• China economic risk
• Complications arising from a changing climate
• Ukraine escalation
• Maritime disruptions

These risks have the potential to reshape flows, pricing and working capital across energy, metals and agri-commodities. The report delves into each of these risks, providing analysis on their potential impact and how commodity traders are responding.

Scholars from Oxford Analytica’s network also provide their analysis through in-depth essays, and our Willis specialists share their insights through a series of callouts on the role of trade credit insurance in commodity trading in Asia, as well as the impact of commodity trading on Switzerland’s economy and its global trade presence.

For detailed perspectives on managing the new economic risks in commodity trading, download the full report.