Lateral thinking on earthquake risk
In February, the largest earthquake to hit Türkiye in nearly a century killed over 50,000 people and destroyed thousands of buildings. When a major disaster occurs, there are often lessons to be learned that will help us build back better. For example, following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Izmit earthquake in northern Türkiye, new building regulations and a national insurance pool were put in place to improve resilience. As lessons begin to emerge from the most recent event, we must remember to think laterally to improve risk management, particularly in other parts of the world where recent observations are lacking. In Section 2.1, Temblor's Ross Stein examines the lessons from Türkiye that can be applied to California, including the possibility of large events on secondary faults, interacting mainshocks that attack buildings twice, and the likelihood of extreme shaking near the rupture and in deep basins.
Property market tipping points
In recent years, there has been an increased focuson socio-economic tipping points, where gradual changes in the climate system could result in abrupt changes to socio-economic systems. An example is Hawke's Bay, a region on the east coast of New Zealand's North Island, which is one of the country's most desirable locations for coastal living. In February, Cyclone Gabrielle brought destruction to the North Island, with record-breaking winds and flooding that destroyed houses, infrastructure, and crops. In Section 2.4, Neil Gunn discusses the impacts of Gabrielle and looks at recent research that suggests Hawke's Bay is approaching a socio-economic tipping point, where losses from the gradual increase in extreme weather events could lead to the collapse of property prices.
Five Category 5 storms in five months
Intense tropical cyclones during the early months of the year are rare. On average, there have been 1.1 Category 5 equivalent storms between January and May since 1980. However, this year has been unusual, with five events in the first five months: Freddy, Kevin, Isla, Mocha, and Mawar. In Section 2.3, we review how several of these storms have broken individual records, most notably Freddy, which produced the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy ever recorded worldwide. With global sea surface temperatures currently at all-time highs since satellite records began, the attention will now turn to the upcoming North Atlantic and Western Pacific seasons to see if the trend continues. The largest number of Category 5 equivalent tropical cyclones ever recorded in a calendar year is 12 in 1997.
When the wind doesn’t blow
While focus is often placed on learning lessons from large natural disasters – such as the recent earthquakes in Türkiye – it is equally important to consider what we can learn when catastrophes don’t happen. For example, understanding the factors that contribute to the variability in extreme weather – including quiescent periods – is important for planning and risk management in industries such as insurance and agriculture. In Section 2.9, Adam Scaife and colleagues from the University of Exeter investigate why there were so few European windstorms during the winter of 2022/2023 and why this was not entirely predicted by seasonal forecast models
El Niño’s return
For three years in a row, the Pacific Ocean has been stuck in its La Niña configuration, producing what is known as a “triple dip” event. La Niña is usually associated with catastrophic flooding in Australia – as we witnessed in 2022 – and busy North Atlantic hurricane seasons, such as the record-breaking year in 2020. But now the Pacific has flipped to El Niño, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declaring its arrival on June 8. In Section 3.1, Scott St. George writes about some of the meteorological and socio-economic effects that businesses should expect from an El Niño event. James Done from the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) then reviews what its appearance could mean for the upcoming North Atlantic hurricane season in Section 3.2.
As we begin to process the lessons learned from these most recent events and incorporate new knowledge into risk models, it is important to remember that preparedness and resilience require more than just better models. We must also consider how our models, with all their simplifications, can be best used to inform real-world decision-making.
Recent events
Outlook
