Business leaders who hoped 2026 would bring greater stability may already be disappointed as challenges around geopolitics, AI and new technologies, economics and people risks persist. For the sixth year in a row, board members and C-suite leaders face ongoing volatility for their organizations. Effective leaders, increasingly experienced in managing risks and adapting to new circumstances, anticipate the following trends.
Experts once envisioned a new normal characterized by equilibrium and global stability, but it has become clear that new and interconnected risks will create continuous uncertainty and shape the business landscape for the foreseeable future. Political, regulatory, cyber and supply chain issues continue to arise and change while climate threats remain.
Effective leaders remain nimble, reevaluating how to navigate the operating environment rather than being stymied by it. They continue to mitigate risks where possible, change plans when necessary and prepare teams to act quickly and decisively when events occur, knowing that not all perils can be avoided.
Labor markets in many countries are poised to loosen this year after contracting in 2024 and 2025. Inflation is expected to stabilize but not fall to desired levels in many developed economies. Amid these economics and an uncertain global environment, companies are focused on earnings protection rather than growth.
They're also reducing hiring to rein in rising labor costs, including pay, healthcare and retirement. Further, it has become clear that recent hiring slowdowns had more to do with businesses funding significant investments in AI during its early days with aggregated hiring savings as opposed to replacing specific jobs with AI (which may come later). Compounding the issue, employee risk aversion and job hugging reduce labor market turnover and job openings.
Effective leaders understand that adding new talent, while engaging healthy and productive employees with the right skills, remains essential to long-term competitiveness and growth.
With interdependent disruption here to stay, effective leaders increase their scenario planning proficiency and become even more adept at predicting and managing change. This enhances both growth and risk management.
While many observers fear a tech industry slowdown, both major tech leaders and smaller or emerging players continue to grow through continued AI adoption and expansion while fighting for prominence in the ecosystem. Everything from access to browsers, email and chat channels to the proliferation of agents and the agentic web, to basic adoption and tool improvement contribute to growth. Sovereign AI systems also expand in relevance as nations seek technological independence.
Effective leaders use early learnings in AI adoption to refine their goals, expectations and requirements for AI and other new technologies.
As AI becomes an integral part of everyday life, AI-driven personal assistants, smart home devices and automated customer service platforms become more sophisticated and accessible. The widespread adoption of AI continues to streamline tasks, enhance productivity and personalize the user. Robotics returns to mainstream discussions, as advances in AI address earlier usability issues — from autonomous cars and taxis to home helpers and defense technologies.
Effective leaders find opportunities for augmenting their business through technology while protecting their brands and reputations from potential backlash to AI and robotics if they're associated with job displacements and negative economic or social impact.
Electricity and water are increasingly recognized as constraints on AI expansion. Alternative solutions will require years to develop and implement. In the meantime, the availability of energy influences decisions over whether to prioritize servers or people, broadening the trade-off debate beyond jobs to include electricity and water. Effective leaders consider energy costs and constraints in AI adoption plans and priorities.
The impact of data constraints on AI adoption is increasingly prominent, as challenges remain accessing, ingesting, cleaning and protecting data. Concurrently, data availability, ownership rights, regulatory and governance rules and cyber/data security remain top of mind. Even the most sophisticated AI tools and agents cannot perform as intended without the right data. Effective leaders understand they need significant quantities of accurate, secure, ingestible and analyzable data for AI to yield a meaningful return.
Companies continue to experience new perils as AI evolves and insurers continue to adapt. While AI-related risks generally are covered implicitly under traditional insurance policies, ambiguity persists (no single policy covers all AI perils and many policies are silent on AI).
Insurers continue to clarify AI coverage by introducing endorsements that affirm coverage for certain AI risks or by adding exclusions to standard policies to avoid unanticipated exposure. Effective leaders confirm and address areas where they have gaps in coverage for AI-related losses.
As AI adoption continues, the false choice of AI or humans first becomes clear (both are required). Effective leaders understand that the “humans versus AI” debate can be well-intended but misdirected. The most successful AI implementations in 2026 reimagine processes and take a “best of” approach that considers which processes are best served by AI, humans or, most frequently, both. This also impacts organizational design and people programs (such as training, pay and benefits) as AI-specific roles arise and spans of control and decision-making change.
The impact of autonomous versus non-autonomous AI on work and jobs (they're not the same) becomes better understood. Effective processes draw from both sets of strengths and include new human/AI partnerships.
Even as the return to offices finally stabilizes, real estate and job data show material differences in work practices across regions, countries and cities. Companies continue to refine their work models, with effective leaders monitoring conditions closely and focusing on productivity and employee wellbeing. Many are implementing new talent strategies and increasing focus on culture and employee experience, as well as the transformation of pay, benefits and career programs to support the new work models.
In the face of persistent volatility, opportunities arise as effective leaders embrace scenario planning, balance AI and people priorities while managing geopolitical and economic pressures. By harnessing data and building effective human/AI partnerships, resilient organizations position themselves to thrive despite continuous disruption.
A version of this article originally appeared on Forbes on January 16, 2026.
