As COVID-19 case rates drop, employers prepare to reopen
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About the series
Newly diagnosed cases of COVID-19 are down by about two-thirds over the last two weeks, and new hospitalizations are down by over a third. Deaths remain over 2,000 per day, but death rates are a trailing indicator so we’d expect to start seeing the decline in March.
These indicators show the risk of COVID-19 has declined across the country, although transmission rates remain high in the vast majority of counties. Furthermore, wastewater samples, which can be an early warning sign of a wave of infections, show a decrease in coronavirus genetic material in 77 of the 99 areas reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and Biobot in eastern Massachusetts shows rates of coronavirus genetic material approaching zero.
Source: CDC, February 18, 2022. Yellow line is seven-day average of new cases per day; blue line is seven-day average of new hospitalizations per day.
Implications for employers:
As employers prepare to reopen workplaces, they should consider the safety of immunocompromised people. About 3% of Americans covered by employer-sponsored health insurance are on immunosuppressive drugs – so there are millions in the workforce who are unprotected from COVID-19 regardless of vaccination status. While some people with impaired immune systems can benefit from a fourth COVID-19 vaccination, many do not.
People commonly think of cancer and organ transplant patients as immunocompromised, but other conditions that weaken the immune system include multiple sclerosis, inflammatory bowel disease and rheumatoid arthritis. The medications that treat these diseases prevent patients from achieving effective immunity against the coronavirus. Therefore, it is important that both employers and other employees remain mindful of the risks COVID-19 poses for immunocompromised colleagues, customers, clients and family members.
Fortunately, a monoclonal antibody, Evusheld, provides six months of protection from COVID-19 for those unable to benefit from vaccination, but this medication is in short supply leading some hospitals to use lotteries to determine who will receive the limited doses.
Implications for employers:
Research has shown that people who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection often are protected for months or longer against a recurrent infection, regardless of their vaccination status. Most, but not all, studies show that vaccination provides greater protection than previous infection.
However, most of these studies were done before Omicron, which has eluded immunity from both vaccinations and prior infections. Both the vaccinated and those with prior COVID-19 infections have had lower hospitalization and death rates in the Omicron wave than those with no prior infections.
Furthermore, recent studies also show that those who have recovered from COVID-19 and who are then vaccinated have much lower rates of subsequent hospitalization — providing evidence that “hybrid” immunity (vaccination and prior infection) is the most protective.
Despite this research, the CDC has resisted giving “credit” for immunity for those who have already had COVID-19 and for good reasons. For starters, it’s easier to implement straightforward rules. Giving credit for past infection would make determining who requires vaccination more difficult. Additionally, the vaccines are exceptionally safe, making it less important clinically to filter out those who will benefit less from the vaccine.
Implications for employers: Employers should be cautious about offering medical exemptions for vaccine mandates to those with previous infections, especially since we don’t know whether those who recover from Omicron infections will have the same robust immune response as those who recovered from Delta or previous variants.
During the recent surges, many people skipped medical care for fear that they might get COVID-19 at medical facilities. However, new research suggests such fears were likely unfounded.
Researchers used hospital electronic medical records from 889 hospitals to track the risk of COVID-19 infection after hospitalization through this past fall and found that the risk of in-hospital transmission was very low. In the last half of 2021, the risk of converting from a negative to a positive COVID-19 status while hospitalized was well under 1%.
Implications for employers:
The Wall Street Journal summarized data from the U.S. Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey that demonstrated the enormous impact of Omicron on days away from work. About 3% of those who were vaccinated missed work because they were sick or caring for someone with COVID-19, compared to about 5.7% of those who were unvaccinated.
Implications for employers:
The CDC released data recently showing that boosters dramatically decreased the risk of hospitalization for the first three to four months after boosting, although that impact waned by five months after the booster shot. This is based on data from 10 states in December and January (during Omicron), and the number of people five months out from their booster was small. Protection for the general population is likely to be higher since those at highest risk likely got boosters earlier. Nonetheless, some countries have begun giving fourth doses of the vaccine.
Source: CDC February 18, 2022
Implications for employers:
Jeff is an internal medicine physician and has led WTW’s clinical response to COVID-19 and other health-related topics. He has served in leadership roles in provider organizations and a health plan and is an Assistant Professor at Harvard Chan School of Public Health.
